It is one thing for Israel to take on Hezbollah, based in southern Lebanon and Lebanon's modest military forces - it would be quite another thing to mix it up with Turkey's military, the second largest in NATO, or Egypt's forces.
A change that should give Israeli military planners pause are reports this week in the Turkish media that Turkey's Military Electronics Industry (ASELSAN) has produced a new identification friend or foe (IFF) system for Turkish jet fighters, warships and submarines and the new software, contrary to the older, U.S.-made version, does not automatically identify Israeli planes and ships automatically as "friendly."
The new IFF has already been installed in Turkish F-16s and is expected to be installed shortly in all Turkish Navy ships and submarines. It's notable that Turkey never participated in a single one of the Arab campaigns against Israel from 1948 to 1973.
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Quite aside from the ominous regional implications, there is the possibility that the U.S. could become involved in the looming dispute, as Texas-based Noble Energy has partnered with Israel's Delek Group Ltd. to develop Israel's Leviathan, Tamar, Dalit, and Noa offshore natural gas fields, and also has a concession to Cyprus's Bloc 12 offshore Mediterranean field, located near Leviathan.
All eyes are now turning towards next week's UN General Assembly meeting, where the Palestinian Authority is to press forward with a motion for recognition as an independent nation, though the final form of the petition is yet unclear. Up to 15 months ago, Tel Aviv could reliably assume that U.S. influence could prevail upon both Egypt and Turkey to shy away from supporting such a move - no longer.
Some diplomatic flexibility is called for - surely 3.4 trillion cubic meters of gas and up to 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil could satisfy the energy and fiscal needs of all interested parties.
The alternative is too dispiriting to contemplate. While predicting events in the Middle East is a clouded prospect at best, one thing is clear, from Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's scorched earth policy in withdrawing from Kuwait during in 1991 - oil and natural gas fields are flammable and Israel does not have enough drones to protect its offshore fields.
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