Was all the madness which unfolded in the First World War directly due to two shots fired by an undernourished nobody in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914? Not really. Nothing could have stopped Europe plunging into war in 1914 as the political situation was so complex, nobody was in a position to see any big picture. In retrospect, a very long list of "what ifs" could be drawn up.
But once the fighting began, there was one window of opportunity to initiate a general and permanent cease-fire. It has been so well publicised that many reading this article would know what that missed opportunity was. It occurred on Christmas Eve 1914 when British soldiers heard the enemy singing Silent Night. The outcome was that on Christmas Day, Britains and Germans dropped their weapons and exchanged gifts. About 100,000 men along the front line were involved in the fraternising.
There has never been more stark an example of the way ordinary people are moved around like pawns on a chessboard by the powerful. On that day the men on both sides would have wondered why they were there and not back with their families. They would have wondered why governments attempt to settle their international disputes by each pitting their young men up against the other.
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Neither side wanted to recommence the fighting the next day. Tragically, when the commander of the British sector heard the news of the unofficial cease-fire, he ordered the killing to recommence immediately. It was Smith-Dorrien who gave the order. For the duration of the four years of horrific carnage, there would never again be such an opportunity to bring the conflict to a swift end.
What if?
What if Smith-Dorrien supported a sector cease-fire that the many thousands of men under his command desperately desired? There were humane journalists attached to the troops. With them on his side, events may have moved too rapidly before his inevitable sacking, to prevent a permanent cease-fire spreading throughout the ranks of the British, French and German armies.
There would not have been a Second World War if the First World War had not left defeated Germany in such social and economic plight that the conditions were just right for an egomaniac to grab power. There would not have been a Cold War without a Second World War which, in only five years, galvanised the USSR and converted it from a part-feudal and part-struggling industrial nation into a mighty military power.
So, how close was Smith-Dorrien to preventing;
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the Cold War which threatened the existence every human on the planet, and
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the Second World War which killed 50 million, and
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saving the 20 million yet to be killed in the war he was fighting?
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How close was he to making a decision which would have made him the most valuable person who has ever lived? From his record, it appears that he was not close at all. On December 26, 1914, humanity needed a much bigger man than Horace Smith-Dorrien.
But, in his defense, humanity always seems to need a bigger person than the one making the decisions.
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