Liberals do a Bradbury in NSW

Personalities

Despite her poor approval ratings, Kristina Keneally actually comes out of the contest looking reasonably good.

Figure 3. Approval of Kristina Keneally.

Her problem is "party" which sits right in the middle of the web. She's actually seen by many as having "tried" to do a good job. It is only at this stage that the issue of the sale of state assets comes into play after having been absent from the issues graphs. This suggests that privatisation isn't so much as a key concern, but a justification. This is reinforced by the fact that it is Liberals, who would be presumed to in principle agree with privatisation, who are the most likely to cite it as a reason.

Figure 4. Approval of Barry O'Farrell.

O'Farrell's strongest point with his own supporters is that he is "honest", and that he is not Labor, however those who disapprove are concerned about his policies, that they have little idea what they are and that they will target government services.

The culmination of these two graphs is the issue of preferred premier.

Figure 5. Preferred Premier.

The two most important reasons for choosing O'Farrell are "choice" and "change" - in other words that he is not currently running the government. Supporters of Keneally see her as "strong" and "capable" with "ideas", although she is also seen as the "least" worse option.

Summary

If Labor had conducted themselves with probity and prudence in power they would probably still be looking good for this election. There is no strong desire to go to the Liberals because they are Liberals, but because they aren't Labor. This presents O'Farrell with a big challenge after the election. He needs to quickly establish a compelling agenda for change or he will flounder getting his agenda through the Legislative Council and Labor will stage an impressive come back at the next election.

While this election is their own work, and will be devastating, it is far from the end of NSW Labor.