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And what about the upper house

By Peter Baume - posted Friday, 18 March 2011


A word about the Legislative Council. No party is likely to get 22 seats and so the Council will be "hung" most likely. So, without a majority in one's own right, it will be necessary to get the support of several cross benchers to get a majority on the floor. Legislation might originate in the other House, but the Governor cannot sign it into law until both houses have approved it. We have seen how Israeli governments have had to accommodate right wing measures to get the 61 votes needed for government in that country. We have seen hard bargains driven in this Nation's Senate to get to 39 votes and it is hoped that not too much will be given away by the incoming Government as it seeks 22 Legislative Council votes.

Next, we might look at the public service. The Labor Party has put a number of its sympathizers into key positions and the political inclinations of some public servants are naturally left wing. Another group is the older style of professional public servant committed to serving the government of the day. Those who have been "fast-tracked" into senior positions "improperly" might have contracts cancelled or not renewed, or they might just choose to resign. Certainly there will be a more traditional approach to promotion and advancement in the public service under a Coalition government.

The Central Coast north of Sydney presents a special problem. The seats of Gosford and the Entrance, mentioned above, are both are on the Central Coast. It is worth remembering that the federal seat of Robertson covers much of the same area and was one the Liberals should have won recently in the Federal election. The sitting Labor member was Belinda Neal. Both she and her husband had been involved in great controversy. But Labor changed its candidate who won an unlikely victory. So one looks at State electorates in the same area with care.

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Finally a word about Marrickville and Balmain. These are two seats with strong Green candidates. Many people in each of those electorates will not vote Liberal but wish to vote against the Government. Accordingly, the Greens have high hopes of winning in each of those electorates although the Liberal Candidate in Balmain might "come up the middle" and take that seat.

The bottom line seems to be that it is a complex situation that it is a steep electoral mountain, that there is a major swing on, that there is an unpopular incumbent Government, and that O'Farrell might have a shortage of ministerial talent.

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About the Author

Professor Peter Baume is a former Australian politician. Baume was Professor of Community Medicine at the University of New South Wales (UNSW) from 1991 to 2000 and studied euthanasia, drug policy and evaluation. Since 2000, he has been an honorary research associate with the Social Policy Research Centre at UNSW. He was Chancellor of the Australian National University from 1994 to 2006. He has also been Commissioner of the Australian Law Reform Commission, Deputy Chair of the Australian National Council on AIDS and Foundation Chair of the Australian Sports Drug Agency. He was appointed a director of Sydney Water in 1998. Baume was appointed an Officer of the Order of Australia in January 1992 in recognition of service to the Australian Parliament and upgraded to Companion in the 2008 Queen's Birthday Honours List. He received an honorary doctorate from the Australian National University in December 2004. He is also patron of The National Forum, publisher of On Line Opinion.

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