And what about the upper house

The Legislative Council is part of the New South Wales Parliament. There will be 21 Councilors elected on March 26^th, and nothing will become law until any measure has passed that Council.. A majority is 22 and at present there are 19 Labor Councilors (but the Labor President does net have a deliberative vote), 15 Liberal and National Party Councilors, 4 Green Councilors, 2 Shooters' and Fishers' Councilors and 1 for Fred Nile and for Family First. Ten Labor and 7 coalition Councilors come out at this election, as do 2 Greens, 1 Shooters' and Fishers' Councilor and the Family First Councilor.

For the Legislative Assembly the voting is by constituency, each of which elects a single member. There are 93 seats (about 69.000 voters each) and the majority figure is 47. Government goes to the party getting a majority in the Legislative Assembly irrespective of what happens in the Legislative Council.

All Assembly members come out at this election, unlike the Legislative Council in which only half come out. At present Labor has 50 seats, Independent Labor 1, the Liberals 24, the Nationals 13 and independents 5 (Bligh, Port Macquarie, Tamworth, Dubbo, Northern Tablelands - the member for the latter seat being Speaker).

There is optional preferential voting in New South Wales and a majority of voters is sometimes difficult to achieve as votes get "exhausted" if preferences have not been recorded. If that happens, those who have allotted preferences exert more influence on the outcome.

The electoral pendulum suggests that he first seats to fall seem to be Miranda, Menai, Wollondilly, Balmain, Camden, the Entrance and Gosford. The pendulum shows that if the coalition wins 5 seats, and if Balmain goes to the Greens, we have a hung parliament. If that happens it will be Verity Firth who loses that Balmain seat. if she holds on, then one more seat is needed for a hung parliament.

To govern in its own right, the Coalition would need to win 10 Assembly seats. To those seats already listed add Monaro, Wyong, Londonderry Coogee, and the next seat is Marrickville - Carmel Tebbut's seat - which could also go to the Greens - and Drummoyne.

A quite major swing of 8%, historically beyond most oppositions, is needed for the Opposition to win the seats required to form government. But opinion polls have been showing consistently that the Coalition is doing very well and Labor is doing very badly. Lately the Coalition is leading Labor by 64 to 36% and it is suggested by some that Labor will win only 16 seats. It is hard to believe that those figures will be repeated on election day. It is not that voters are excited by the Coalition; it is that they are sick of the Labor Government.

A large number of Labor Parliamentarians and staffers have announced already that they are going. In fact, twenty five members of the assembly, most of them Labor have announced their retirement already,

The Premier is conducting as good a retreat as seems possible under the circumstances. Barry O'Farrell, for his part, is not saying very much at all. He is making himself a small target - the tide is running strongly with him and he might not have to say too much to win the election.

Opinion polls often move closer together as the election approaches. So far it seems not to have happened in NSW. Of course it might happen in the last few days of the campaign.

There seems to be a major swing on in New South Wales. It is possible that many marginal Liberal candidates who did not expect electoral success will enter Parliament. They say "winners are grinners" and big winners might even want to smile. But a small majority makes for a very disciplined parliamentary team. A large majority makes for a more fractious backbench and activities will have to be found to keep new members busy. So committees will probably be used more, if for no other reason than that is one way to channel the energy of ambitious back-benchers into productive enterprises. Of course that gives the Leader the opportunity to watch for promising people to emerge. Another danger is the highly factionalised nature of the Liberal Party in New South Wales. Some people not of O'Farrell's view will most likely enter Parliament and might wish to continue factional fights there. So far, there has been little factional nonsense in the Parliament. O'Farrell has to placate the dominant right wing of the party at the same time as he tries to communicate with the electorate. The problem is that they want to hear different things. The other danger for O'Farrell will be in the composition of his front bench. When he selects a team there will be a lot of disgruntled and disappointed local members left and there might be some disgruntled people in the Parties' organisations. If we assume that the voters will re-elect the various independents does O'Farrell continue to have one of them as Speaker. He probably will - and that will add to the disappointment of some ambitious people.

If we look at the team O'Farrell has, there are some who stand out. Mike Baird is probably good. So is Gladys Berejiklian. After that there are problems. Gallagher is said to be good. Greg Smith is regarded as competent but extreme - and he might be selecting and recommending new judges for the new government. The National Party is likely to provide a couple of good ministers and there will be two or three unexpected great successes among the more junior ministers. But a lot of the Parliamentary Coalition Parties are untried and the decision by O'Farrell to prefer the existing shadow ministers will buy him a few months of grace.

A word about the Legislative Council. No party is likely to get 22 seats and so the Council will be "hung" most likely. So, without a majority in one's own right, it will be necessary to get the support of several cross benchers to get a majority on the floor. Legislation might originate in the other House, but the Governor cannot sign it into law until both houses have approved it. We have seen how Israeli governments have had to accommodate right wing measures to get the 61 votes needed for government in that country. We have seen hard bargains driven in this Nation's Senate to get to 39 votes and it is hoped that not too much will be given away by the incoming Government as it seeks 22 Legislative Council votes.

Next, we might look at the public service. The Labor Party has put a number of its sympathizers into key positions and the political inclinations of some public servants are naturally left wing. Another group is the older style of professional public servant committed to serving the government of the day. Those who have been "fast-tracked" into senior positions "improperly" might have contracts cancelled or not renewed, or they might just choose to resign. Certainly there will be a more traditional approach to promotion and advancement in the public service under a Coalition government.

The Central Coast north of Sydney presents a special problem. The seats of Gosford and the Entrance, mentioned above, are both are on the Central Coast. It is worth remembering that the federal seat of Robertson covers much of the same area and was one the Liberals should have won recently in the Federal election. The sitting Labor member was Belinda Neal. Both she and her husband had been involved in great controversy. But Labor changed its candidate who won an unlikely victory. So one looks at State electorates in the same area with care.

Finally a word about Marrickville and Balmain. These are two seats with strong Green candidates. Many people in each of those electorates will not vote Liberal but wish to vote against the Government. Accordingly, the Greens have high hopes of winning in each of those electorates although the Liberal Candidate in Balmain might "come up the middle" and take that seat.

The bottom line seems to be that it is a complex situation that it is a steep electoral mountain, that there is a major swing on, that there is an unpopular incumbent Government, and that O'Farrell might have a shortage of ministerial talent.