Being neighbourly in the post-Mubarak Mid East

For instance, despite the economic benefits of the Qualifying Industrial Zones (QIZs) between Egypt, Jordan and Israel (which enable goods produced by either Egypt and Israel or Jordan and Israel duty-free access to US markets), neither Arab state could show enthusiastic support for the plan or further its development in light of strong domestic support for the Palestinians.

As Jordanian Ambassador to Israel Ali Al-Ayed argued: “Normalisation cannot blossom in a political vacuum. It is directly affected by the general regional situation and the barometer of the Palestinian conflict”.

It has been 63 years since the creation of Israel, and she is realistically not in danger of being “wiped off the map”. While there are certainly radical elements advocating her demise, her position as a legitimate nation-state is widely recognised. The two questions this raises are: (a) Is the Arab world still determined to destroy Israel? (b) Is Israel’s only option to gain acceptance in the Middle East through the barrel of a gun?

The Saudi Initiative that was endorsed by the Arab League in 2002 and re-affirmed in 2007 provides the answer to the first question. The Arab states are prepared to recognise Israel and grant her a full normalisation of ties provided:

1. Israel withdraws completely from all the territories occupied since 1967, including the Syrian Golan Heights to the lines of June 4, 1967 as well as the remaining occupied Lebanese territories in the south of Lebanon.
2. Israel achieves a just solution to the Palestinian refugee problem to be agreed upon in accordance with UN General Assembly Resolution 194.
3. Israel accepts the establishment of a sovereign independent Palestinian state on the Palestinian territories occupied since the 4th of June 1967 in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

That this initiative was proposed by Saudi Arabia, which is considered by many to be the centre of radical Wahabi Islamism (which rejects Israel’s right to exist), is extremely noteworthy.

It underscores the Arab world’s acceptance of Israel’s right to exist. Now assuming Israel accepts this offer, it would be unrealistic to think that she would be immediately embraced by the Arab world. Decades of conflict and mistrust mean that Arab-Israeli relationships will have to be thawed out gradually through meaningful confidence-building measures such as mutually-beneficial trade agreements.

The advantages for ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and obtaining Arab state support are numerous. Among the most important are: (a) that the Iranian and Islamist threat would be severely diminished as the religious and ideological justification of eliminating Israel would cease to exist; (b) moderate regimes in the Middle East will be strengthened and emboldened to push for greater cooperation with Israel.

Undoubtedly, spoilers on both sides would strive to torpedo any Arab-Israeli rapprochement at every step of the way; however, once it becomes clear that the commitment of both leaders and the people to cooperating, and indeed coexisting with the other is steadfast, such spoilers would invariably be marginalised.

Recent events in Tunisia, Egypt and now Algeria, show that Arabs are rejecting the old and outmoded ways of thinking, and are poised for change. In such a climate it is opportune for Israel to reassess her strategy vis-a-vis the Palestinians and her Arab neighbours.

The major stumbling block seems to be Israel’s existing national security doctrine. It posits that if a true and lasting peace with the Palestinians and the Arab world were to occur, it would be increasingly difficult for Israel to justify its foreign aid from the US, acquisition of weapons and armaments and even conscription. This would, as many strategists believe, severely weaken the state of Israel.

Therefore, Israel must always maintain some form of tension with its neighbours either in the form of a low-level conflict or a cold peace with its neighbours. It is for this reason that Israeli actions can sometimes be provocative, such as the continued building and/or expansion of settlements in East Jerusalem despite pledging to halt such projects. Such actions incense the Palestinians and the rest of the Arab World, and signal Israel’s unneighbourly intentions.