Australia must line-up with the US rather than China

Second, the US should make the sort of investments in America’s military that are indicative of a long-term presence in the Pacific. The Navy running with at least 30 fewer ships than it says it needs sends American allies a bad signal about power projection trend lines. In addition to fixing this shortfall, working with the Australians to expand access to military bases there - including finding a new permanent base on Australia’s northern shore at Darwin - would send a powerful positive signal about the trend lines of America’s commitment to the Pacific.

Third, if the Obama Administration’s love–hate relationship with trade is perplexing for Americans, imagine the confusion abroad. What America’s allies do know is that out of dozens of bilateral and regional free trade agreements, the US is party to two and that the most lucrative agreement, the Korea–US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS), is stuck in the ratification process. The Transpacific Partnership negotiations, now involving nine countries (including Australia and the US) is encouraging, but it is difficult to know whether its final provisions on labor, environment, and investment will be acceptable to real advocates of free trade. Instead of wasting time building consensus with big labor and protectionists on Capitol Hill, the Administration should submit the KORUS as promised and request trade promotion authority on a timeline that gets it to completion of the Transpacific Partnership on its promised November 2011 schedule.

Fourth, the Administration appears to have made a turn on human rights in Asia. Just last week in Hawaii, Secretary Clinton gave a speech in which she said emphasized “the persuasive power of our values - in particular, our steadfast belief in democracy and human rights.” She may have been slow off the mark, but she has it absolutely right now. The US should not only advance human liberty as a good in and of itself but should recognize that standing with likes of Nobel laureate Liu Xiaobo is in America’s strategic interests. The US should work with its allies to understand the utility, as well as the principle, in such support.

China the One with a Decision to Make

Ensuring American predominance far into the future does not mean living in denial. China’s rise is real, and Americans must accept that it is going to be an ever-greater factor in Asia’s economic and political calculus. Long-term predominance is about having the right mix of power and values to set the rules that govern China’s integration into the regional order and to discourage any effort to impose its own rules. The question is really not, as White has posited, whether the US is prepared to accept the Chinese as a global power but rather whether China is prepared to accept an order shaped by more than 60 years of American leadership. The critical task is the US working with its allies to convince the Chinese of this necessity.

The Australians should be natural American partners in this effort. The current angst there is an indication that they need some convincing before joining America in making the case. They want to believe. Clinton and Gates should give them reason to.