Watching China

Educated youth: these young people are the hope of China. Young Chinese people are similar to young people everywhere. They are honest and idealistic. The saddest thing to observe, however, is how quickly their own society corrupts them after they leave university. It’s the only way for them to succeed or survive. All the fight was knocked out of them at Tiananmen Square.

The system: Zhang Zemin defined it as “Socialism with Chinese characteristics”. In my opinion however, he put the cart before the horse. The system would be better described as “Capitalism with Chinese characteristics”. China today is more capitalist than the good ole USA (but without the benefits of a US-style constitution).

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The only people who can speak out against the system these days are those individuals who enjoy some measure of protection. Either they are related to famous forebears (e.g., China’s revolutionary “immortals”) or they have the support of some high placed persons who use them as weapons in their internal power-struggles. Nothing is as it seems in China.

Perhaps there really is a debate going on within the party about reform. Perhaps some intelligent members recognise that the current rigidly conservative political system is incapable of managing the explosion of individual creative energy that has been released since Deng Xiao Ping introduced his policy of opening up and reform.

In my opinion, General Liu’s outspokenness is the tip of an iceberg, and a sign of what is to come. If he has been allowed to publicly criticise, we can be sure that there is a faction within the Party which recognises the need for change, and that the internal debate has begun in all seriousness. This is the first shot.

Watch closely. It will be played out as the Party chooses the next generation of leaders. In the meantime, President Hu Jin Tau, Vice-Premier Wen Jia Bao, and their politburo colleagues will present a united front to China and the world. Political stability and a harmonious society will continue to be their mantra.

The internal debate is about to heat up, however. Old China hands like me will be looking for signs of heat and smoke.

We live in interesting times.