Gillard versus Abbott: does it really matter who wins?

In contrast to many comments on blogs, I do not fear the election of Labor or the Coalition. I gave up my dogmatic support for Labor long ago, and have primary faith in the merit of competition over ideas and perspectives between various players on many different issues.

While Abbott is often cited as wanting to end legal abortion, destroy industrial relations, or even decimate social security, he has little hope of doing so even if he wanted to. Australian traditions and expectations, built up over decades, will ensure that any change on such issues occurs in a way acceptable to the Australian people. As the Howard government found out, radical industrial relations reforms (especially in a time of higher economic growth), was hardly likely to convince a majority, even allowing for lower trade union membership.

In any case, at this time when many Australian voters are disillusioned with the major parties, a Coalition government will have to overcome a clear majority of non-Coalition parties in the Senate.

Australia remains a very liberal and secular nation on many accounts. In 2008, the Religion Monitor, an international survey carried out by the Bertelsmann Foundation, concluded that 28 per cent of Australians “see themselves as not at all religious, with religious practices and beliefs barely featuring in their lives”, although 25 per cent saw themselves as deeply religious. Of the 21 nations polled, Australia was ranked 17th in terms of their religiousness, well behind the US where over 60 per cent are deeply religious and only 11 per cent not religious. About 50 per cent of Australians considered religion the least important when compared to family, partners, work/career, leisure time and politics.

While the Coalition does have an influential faction of Christian conservatives (known as the Lyons Forum), it also has the John Stuart Mill society formed to counter the former’s influence. One has only to remember the Howard government’s attempt to crack down on adult X-rated videos. In line with the reality that an AGB McNair poll found that some 83 per cent of Australians believed that non-violent sexually explicit X-rated videos should be legally available, Cabinet in 1997 limited itself to introducing a new category for non-violent erotic videos which excluded some of the objectionable components of X-rated videos, while rejecting a proposal to ban R-rated material on pay TV.

What is likely to happen on key issues?

In regards to social welfare, both parties will continue to offer substantial resources, despite the possibility that future economic recession may lead to cutbacks rather than a reliance on greater debt.

Although there could be important differences between Labor and the Coalition concerning mutual obligation responsibilities and user-pay principles, Australian governments from both sides remain committed to fairness. The 2010 OECD Factbook indicates that Australia’s public social expenditure increased from 13.6 to 17.1 per cent of GDP between 1990 and 2005, even faster than the OECD average level which increased from 18.1 to 20.5 per cent. Australia also still has one of the highest minimum wages in the world by 2009.

And despite differences between Labor and the Coalition over how targeted social welfare benefits should be, both Labor and Coalition governments did adopt policies that helped Australia’s level of income inequality remain similar from the mid-1980s to mid-2000s, whereas it worsened in 19 of 24 OECD countries measured.

As Abbott is already finding out, equity issues even matter among his own colleagues. His policy offer to provide paid parental leave on a level of 50 per cent of wages (up to $150,000) for a period of six months will have to overcome resistance from the National Party who rightfully challenge the possibility that a woman in the city could be paid $75,000 when a part-time nurse in a regional area would only get $25,000.

Even in regards to industry assistance, both parties are unlikely to abandon the national interest. While the average effective rate of tariff assistance for manufacturing in Australia fell from 35 per cent in the late 1960s to under 5 per cent by 2004, the Productivity Commission indicates that total gross assistance for Australian industry (including tariff assistance, budgetary outlays and tax concessions) was still $17.5 billion in 2007-08, although $9.4 billion when tariff input assistance was removed.

Both ongoing assistance and lower tariff barriers uphold dual public expectations for freer trade and the need for some protection to Australian industry, an aspect which does not rule greater protection in the future if need be. Just as a June 1997 Morgan poll (Finding 2996) indicated 68 per cent support for protecting Australian industry at a time of extensive debate, so 2009 and 2010 Lowy Institute polls (Australia and the World) also found that an average 78 per cent since 2006 thought protecting Australian jobs was “very important”, despite most also believing that globalisation was good for Australia (79 per cent and 72 per cent in 2009 and 2008).