Advantage but no honeymoon

One comments: "Rudd had absolutely no credibility left. His dumb-arse decision to try and introduce the RSPT [resource tax] was the last straw. I'm not saying I'm a big fan of Gillard, but anything would be better than Rudd."

Or they think she is a perfumed strategy to keep Labor's backroom boys in power.

For example: "Julia Gillard makes federal Labor the same as NSW Labor. A pretty face overseeing a rotten party."

Some are incensed that Labor has changed leaders without going to an election, and they question Gillard's loyalty to Rudd, particularly wondering how she can disown the decisions that brought down Rudd while being a key decision-maker herself.

Another example: "They are both responsible for where we are today. She cannot escape the odium of decisions made in the kitchen cabinet."

There is surprisingly little reference to her portfolio areas, given that education and industrial relations are spheres where the government has been very active.

When they are discussed, it is largely in negative terms, with references to the Building the Education Revolution infrastructure program, NAPLAN and the MySchool website as examples of incompetence and failure to be consultative.

Given all this negativity, does Gillard improve Labor's standing with this group at all?

In fact she does, because Abbott's position is quite brittle and is mostly leveraged off two attributes, both in areas where Gillard is also strong.

Abbott is admired for being honest and uncompromising. These characteristics served him well against Rudd, who was perceived as the opposite, but won't serve as well against Gillard, who is seen as a "straight talker, good communicator, spunky, clever, sticks to her guns".

Abbott has also been quite spare with his policy pronouncements, with a few exceptions such as paid parental leave, and is in danger of being recognised by voters only for his Christianity and being a "Life. Be in it" Lycra-clad role model.

On December 1, 2009, when Abbott became Liberal leader, he changed the terms of the national conversation. Rudd never learned the new language, was marginalised and then failed.