Real man v metro man

So Abbott potentially regains the Liberals' cultural ascendancy with the Howard battlers, but doesn't rate as an economic manager. He loses young female voters, and replays the Liberal theme of actions v words, but in a way that some voters find threatening. How will this run in the next election?

If Abbott runs a head-to-head personality battle with Rudd of conviction politician v populist, real man v metro man, old Australia v new Australia, doer v talker, then risk is on the Liberal side and they probably lose badly. If the next election is about climate change or the economy, then I think Rudd wins well.

But if it is about whether Rudd is living up to expectations, or has got a bit too pompous, narcissistic and self-satisfied, then the straight-shooting gadfly may do surprisingly well. Particularly if voters don't think he will win.

What is certain is that the government has been put on notice. It is going to have to lift its performance, and the rules have changed.