Political insurgency in Higgins

Against this background, the Higgins by-election provides an opportunity for voters to send a signal to Turnbull that they are not happy with his leadership. They can do this either by voting informal or by supporting the Independent candidate, Stephen Murphy, who is a member of the Climate Sceptics group which has been established with the principal object of exposing the absence of any sound base to the science used by global warming believers. But Murphy, whom I have met and who seems an excellent candidate, is also a strong advocate of the small government policies that are supposed to be an important component in the Coalition’s agenda.

By contrast, the Greens candidate in the Higgins by-election, Clive Hamilton (who resides in the ACT), portrays himself as an intellectual with a commitment to science that requires C02 emissions to be cut by 60 per cent (see his article in The Australian, November 11). In reality, he is using this as a cover for his extremist views of why and how humans should behave in the green world he dreams of. These include views such as that “Gaia is revolting against the impact of human beings”, “we must abandon our comfortable belief in progress”, and that it may be necessary to suspend the democratic process. In short, the environment comes first humans second.

The extremity of his position is reflected in his assertion that “the scientific debate [on climate change] has been won, again and again” and his attempt to label as “political” those who reject the dangerous global warming thesis. This of course ignores the large and growing number of scientists who do so. If they are political, are the proponents too?

Three other candidates, one purportedly from the Democrats, another purportedly from One Nation and one who describes herself as from The Australian Sex Party, seem likely to play a minor role.

Of course, with no Labor candidate it will be difficult to assess the division of the voting between the six candidates. In the Mayo by-election after Downer’s resignation the Liberal candidate won only 57 per cent of the two party preferred vote and that may be used by some as a benchmark for assessing Higgins i.e. if Liberal candidate Kelly O’Dwyer gets more than 57 per cent of the votes that could be interpreted as a “good result” for the Liberal Party and Turnbull (the comparable result to Mayo in Bradfield was 63.5 per cent but Bradfield has been a stronger Liberal Party seat than Higgins).

On the other hand, the fact that the Higgins Greens candidate is much more of an extremist on this occasion may deter some Labor voters who would otherwise vote Green in the absence of a Labor candidate.

The relatively unknown Murphy is a dark horse but, in circumstances in which there is growing scepticism in the community about the dangerous global warming thesis, he could attract a much higher proportion than would normally be expected for a new face. The widespread dissatisfaction of Liberals with Turnbull, particularly on global warming, could also help Murphy. Whatever, it is difficult to see that Turnbull would be pleased if O’Dwyer wins with only 57 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.