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Good planets are hard to come by

By Andrew Glikson - posted Tuesday, 3 November 2009


  1. polar ice melt;
  2. sea level rise;
  3. migration of climate zones toward the poles;
  4. desertification of temperate climate zones;
  5. intensification of hurricanes and floods, related to increase in the level of atmospheric energy;
  6. acidification of the oceans; and
  7. destruction of coral reefs.

Which is why the European Union and in recent international conferences defined a rise by 2.0 degrees C as the maximum permissible level. A dominant scientific view has emerged that atmospheric CO2 levels, currently at 388ppm, need to be urgently reduced to below 350ppm. This is because, a rise of CO2 concentration above 350ppm triggers feedback effects, which include:

  1. carbon cycle feedback due to warming, which dries and burns vegetation, with loss of CO2. With further warming, the onset of methane release from polar bogs and sediments is of major concern; and
  2. ice/melt water interaction feedbacks: melt water melts more ice, ice loss results in albedo loss, exposed water absorb infrared heat.
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Because CO2 is cumulative, with atmospheric residence time on the scale of centuries to millennia, it may not be possible to stabilise or control the climate through small incremental reduction in emissions and avoid irreversible tipping points.

Humans can not argue with the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere. Time is running out. What is needed are global emergency measures, including:

  1. urgent deep cuts in carbon emissions by as much as 80 per cent;
  2. parallel Fast track transformation to non-polluting energy utilities - solar, solar-thermal, wind, tide, geothermal, hot rocks; and
  3. global reforestation and re-vegetation campaigns, including application of biochar.

Business as usual, with its focus on the annual balance sheet, can hardly continue under conditions of environmental collapse. Governments, focused on the next elections, need to focus on the survival of the next generation

Good planets are hard to come by.

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About the Author

Dr Andrew Glikson is an Earth and paleoclimate scientist at the Research School of Earth Science, the School of Archaeology and Anthropology and the Planetary Science Institute, Australian National University.

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