The reality behind China's 'green power'

Kevin Rudd and Penny Wong loudly applauded “China’s historic shift on climate change” in Hu Jintao’s commitment to reduce China’s carbon emissions at the G20. One can only hope that such praise was prior to the lack of detail and the implications in Hu Jintao’s commitment explained to them.

Plant earth requires firm commitments to reduce total emissions and this is no time for world leaders to be playing with words.

China is the world’s biggest polluter and Hu Jintao’s “commitment” is meaningless in practical terms. Agreeing with such a flawed concept is a backward step and those seeing it as a positive move are only playing politics, and ignoring their responsibility and duty of care to those who elected them and to future generations.

China has used George Bush’s flawed energy intensity concept as a move to embarrass the US and a strategy to gain room to manoeuvre as it proceeds with its coal fired energy and industrial expansion programs, Kyoto, and WTO tariff issues.

China’s wind energy

Since 2007, China has been promoting its image as a major green energy power, by focusing attention on its rapidly growing wind generation capacity.

Not only is China constructing large-scale wind generation facilities, it has achieved its goal to become a major manufacturer and supplier of key licensed components as well as turnkey Chinese designed systems for domestic and export markets.

In the run up to Pittsburgh and Copenhagen, China is promoting its renewable energy target of 15 per cent of total energy needs by 2020. In a bid to deflect rising criticism of its huge coal fired power generation expansion plans, China is also promoting its intention to create “green cities” powered by huge wind farms.

In its rush to highlight its “green credentials” and exploit Kyoto’s profitable CDM (Clean Development Mechanism) financial incentives before they terminate in 2011, China ignored basic principles in effectively managing wind generation.

China’s wind and solar energy are now serious joint contributors to regional and national GDP. Following incentive announcements, wind and solar have given a boost to China’s stock markets and any contraction in wind and solar demand will affect the economy and stock markets.

Wind farm capacity

Since 2005, investment in China's wind power sector has grown 100 per cent per annum. China’s projected total generating capacity for 2020 is 1,500GW, of which wind generation will contribute just over 8 per cent.

China is well under way to achieving its 2020 target of seven major wind generating bases producing 120GW of electricity. Average capacity for each base is 10GW, the equivalent of 10 standard mid-sized coal fired base-load power stations at each site.

Problems for China’s wind generator operators

Wind farm operators have been experiencing various technical and environmental problems ignored at the time of commitment.

While the projected wind input has failed to reach expectations, it is only one contributing factor to mounting problems. More than 30 per cent of China’s wind power assets do not contribute to China’s green energy generation due to:

• lack of local energy demand;
• no grid connection due to remote locations; and
• grid connections considered too expensive.

Problems for those wind farms connected to the grid include:

• grid operators not paying the price for wind generated electricity;
• effects of voltage fluctuation due to variable winds on grid management; and
• operators will not pay the high cost of compensating technology to smooth voltage flow in varying conditions and grid demand.

Grid upgrade needed for wind and solar power

Wind farm operators will face increasing problems as China progresses with its long distance high-voltage and ultra-high voltage grids, as well as hi-voltage DC transmission lines. China needs a modern, flexible grid to raise the uptake of renewable power. State Grid Corp wants to build a nationwide "strong smart grid" and while smart-grid technology is expanding in developing nations, Beijing drags its feet.

New hi and ultra high voltage grids

While the majority of power flows through 220KV grids, China is investing in high and ultra high voltage grids to carry power that require stable and reliable input to meet long distance transmission demands.

Two 750KV and two 1,000KV transmission lines are under construction to link inland coal and hydropower centres to the industrialised coastal regions. These grids are highly susceptible to fluctuating voltages and need stable and reliable generation input.

Hi-voltage DC grids

Trials are in progress on one 660 KV DC transmission line creating a potential challenge for one or more wind generation operators.

Upgrade costs

The IEA estimates that in general, China’s will need to invest approximately US$1.5 trillion in new grids and upgrades by 2030.

The solution is coal

China’s wind farm operators want to install an additional 80GW to 85GW of coal fired power generation not previously included in official forecasts. This will be the equivalent of an estimated 5 per cent to 6 per cent increase in total generating capacity.

Coal fired back up power

By mid 2008, Beijing was under pressure from developers of a new high profile large-scale wind farm, as well as a number of investors and major operators seeking approval for the construction of coal fired power stations to supply backup power during low wind conditions.

Operators want coal fired backup plants to supply 65 per cent to 75 per cent of the capacity of the wind generating facility. They have the full support of local officials and grid operators who claim that these backup systems maintain a reliable supply of power and will prevent disruption and possible damage to the grid system and loss of power to consumers.

The problems with dedicated backup coal fired power generation

In theory, during ideal wind generating conditions, backup power is shut down. When wind speed drops off, backup power is restarted. Coal fired power stations are base load supply systems, not suited for intermittent and unscheduled stop-start cycles. These intermittent operations incur higher operational, maintenance and production charges, as well as higher coal consumption, raising the cost per kilowatt of electricity produced above that of normal base load operations.

Each new start cycle also releases higher pollutant levels prior to reaching normal operating temperatures.

Unlike gas turbine peaking systems, coal fired systems can take in excess of 24 hours to bring back on line from time of shut down, depending upon cold, warm or hot starts.

Operating and managing such a complex combined generating facility is challenging and costly, and would normally require one boiler/turbine/generator train on line at all times, adding varying degrees of carbon emissions to the renewable facility zero carbon footprint.

Success has created problems of looming overcapacity for China’s booming wind generation industry, and State Council will introduce restrictions in early 2010.

Chinese manufacturers are actively seeking export markets for excess capacity.

Just what is green energy in China?

The introduction of polluting coal fired backup systems in China converts a dedicated renewable energy plant into a dual-fuel facility with a positive carbon footprint.

This raises the question on how to assess the true green value of each wind facility, and calculate the net levels of “polluting energy” from “non polluting energy” from what was originally a zero carbon generating facility.

It also raises another interesting question. How reliable and relative is the methodology and criteria involved in calculating and approving incentives for a renewable facility with a carbon footprint under the Kyoto CDM scheme. China has secured 59 per cent of the total “rewards” under this scheme worldwide.

How will any possible future carbon trading scheme classify these dual-fuel power facilities?

Backup up for a 10GW wind facility requires a major coal fired power station of 6.5GW to 7.5GW capacity at each site.

Because of declining interest in CDMs, plus disappointing returns and mounting losses from wind generation operations, it could be reasonable to assume that installation of these coal fired backup systems is merely a blatant, licensed ruse to improve balance sheet bottom lines and return on investment.

Solar

China’s export-reliant solar cell industry is also in overcapacity mode and huge government incentives to build large-scale photovoltaic generating facilities will soak up solar cell inventories and provide work for the industry.

Like wind generation, solar is destined for the impoverished northwest and western regions of China and it will be interesting to monitor the operations and environmental effects of these large-scale arrays.

The newly completed Ningxia Hu’s Shizuishan Stage I 10MW plant comprises more than 37,000 panels. There is another 40MW of capacity in Phase II with more than 110,000 panels still to come.

Dunhuang is in the construction stage of a 100MW array designed to provide electricity for 50,000 families with an average daily consumption of 2kWhr per family a day.

Both plants are located in dry and arid areas as are the wind plants. What is good for wind may not be good for solar since the winds carry the fine abrasive and highly mineralised desert dust particles.

As well as wind, these areas are plagued with water shortages. The 10MW Stage I component of the Shizuishan array will consume a substantial volume of water for regular cleaning. What water is available is unsuited for cleaning solar panels without pre-treatment. When completed, the array will increase Phase I water consumption by 400 per cent.

Bringing this hi-tech energy to remote communities comes at a cost - the lifeblood of the region - their precious water.

Site selection needs more serious technical input and less political interference with over simplistic plans to bring alternative energy to the poor rural regions to score cheap political points.

It is China’s intention to have 1GW of installed solar power generation by the end of 2011 and 10GW by 2020. That is a lot of cleaning water. Beijing will have to carry out a fine balancing act in deciding which has the higher priority - popularity, solar power, or water.

Where to at Copenhagen

China faces two problems at Copenhagen.

The first problem is its unacceptable and unworkable proposal to use energy intensity as the criteria for China’s emissions. Even using 2005 as the benchmark, the adoption of such a scheme grants China the right to proceed with business as usual and continue to increase its existing high emissions rates until 2020. That will effectively negate the reduction efforts and economic sacrifices of other nations.

China’s massive coal fired energy expansion program is still in progress and these additional “back up” plants will increase the overall number of base load plants and contribute to an additional major increase in carbon emissions.

The second problem is the net effect of China’s renewable energy footprint. The proposed installation of base load coal-fired backup systems will seriously discount the 15 per cent claim by 2020.

For our politicians

It is time for our politicians to get down and work for their pay, and forget about photo ops and self-aggrandisement. It is time to face the reality that climate change cannot be ignored, nor can it be considered as another purely commercial opportunity for the finance sector. It is time for hard and non-politically biased decision-making, genuine separation of political ideals and learn from China’s mistakes.

It is also time to realise that despite the rhetoric, neither Mr Rudd nor Mr Turnbull has the family tree to venture forth and walk on water without water wings.