The march of (technological) progress

Continually increasing affordable computer processing power, bandwidth and data storage, friendlier user interfaces, coupled with proliferating devices (Blackberries, iPods, motor vehicles) will most assuredly push personal and corporate productivity to record levels, while raising a number of public policy issues such as privacy.

But predictions can also misjudge the uptake of seemingly appealing products and processes.

In the recent past the promise of video telephony/conferencing, voice activation technology, smart cards, HDTV, telecommuting, virtual reality and artificial intelligence have fallen short to various degrees, although it may well be just a timing issue.

Systemic changes ahead

During the 1970s France showed how a national strategy obsessively followed could build a better future for its citizens. Traumatised by the impact of the first oil shock in 1973-74, which saw interruptions to their key energy fuel - Middle Eastern oil - and massive price hikes, a coalition of industry, trade unions (communist) and the government agreed to introduce nuclear power to achieve national energy security and independence.

In the next 15 years, 57 nuclear reactors were built (now 59), which now generate about 80 per cent of France’s electricity while supporting “non-nuclear” nations such as Denmark and Italy with exported nuclear power. France is a country three times ours in population and GDP but with a smaller greenhouse gas footprint!

Australia does not yet see its industrial processes under similar threat, although the GFC may yet come close to having such an impact. But with considerable vision and conviction, the government is putting in place key technology policies with principles around which our industry and society will organise.

First, the commitment to clean energy, while still hotly debated in some quarters, will inevitably see dramatic increases in efforts directed at new energy platforms and solutions that prevent GHG emissions from fossil fuels reaching the atmosphere.

ATSE has published a number of authoritative technical reviews in this area which I have no doubt will grow in consequence. There appear to be few truly objective commentators on the subject of global warming and climate change. Of course, ATSE’s members cover the spectrum of public opinion on this subject, but the Academy’s technical judgments are supported by the wide and deep expertise of its members leading to scholarly, well researched and authoritative studies to date.

The second strategic initiative is the commitment to building a high-speed national broadband network. Few government or individual industry strategies will have as wide-ranging and important an effect on our economy as the availability of affordable internet access with world-class bandwidth by all Australians.

This policy is an example of informed government leadership and will lead to an environment within which many exciting and unforeseen applications and businesses will emerge even as the details of NBN execution potentially lead down unexpected paths.

On the topic of technology, there are certain laws that can be relied upon to produce breakthroughs as well as continuous change - like experience curves and Moore’s Law. These often underpin our confidence in claiming that no matter the (technical) problem, a solution will most certainly be found. The only points of dispute might be in the time estimated or the emergence of social issues such as ethical considerations and privacy.

But when a nation agrees on its priorities, especially when reinforced by a real and visible urgency, strong government leadership makes an emphatic difference and accelerated progress follows.