ALP vote improves as issues turn for them

Back in September 89 per cent of people thought they knew enough about Rudd to either approve or disapprove of him. That still stands at 85 per cent. People know where they stand with him.

In September only 49 per cent of people thought they knew enough about Turnbull to do the same thing. Now it is 77 per cent. Of the additional 28 per cent who have come to a conclusion, none of them (on balance) has decided they approved of Turnbull. As well, 10 per cent of the sample has moved from approving to disapproving him. It will take an heroic effort for him to change this perception.

One of our respondents handily sums up the general feeling of the difference between Turnbull and Rudd like this:

“Kevin Rudd comes across as someone who wants the best for his country, is willing to compromise, but has the strength and leadership ability to move Australia in the right direction. Malcolm Turnbull comes across as someone who has been used to having his own way, bullying all and sundry, and whose priority is Malcolm Turnbull.”

Which means that when the Opposition accuses Rudd of bullying or a refusal to compromise, voters are likely to think “He might, but Malcolm Turnbull would be even worse”.

That’s if voters are all that interested in these issues in the first place.

If you did a content analysis of media coverage for the last month or so you would think that Utegate was the most important issue. If you do a word count of our responses you find that it comes up only 46 times. Of those, 40 (2.5 per cent of the sample) of the occurrences are used to explain whether voters approve or disapprove of Malcolm Turnbull.

Of those who do mention it, most think it shows Turnbull to be either dishonest, or impetuous, while a significant minority thought it was poor judgment because it distracted from the issues that really mattered.

Rudd’s approval rating should not be taken at face value either. It indicates grudging respect rather than wild popularity. Many respondents see him as being egotistical with an eye on the next job (which they assume is at the UN), unable to implement decisions and a bit of a nerd. Unstated in their approval of him appears to be relief that he is not John Howard (mentioned 60 times in respect of approval for Rudd).

To a large extent what we are seeing in federal politics is a consolidation of the status quo as determined 12 months out from the last federal election. The Liberal Party had been in power for 10 years and Rudd presented as a clear and clean alternative. He still does, and will probably continue to do so, until external circumstances move against him, or he overstays his welcome. It will take some time, or very bad economic news, for this situation to change.

Note: These figures are from an online sample of 1,317 Australians between the July 29 and August 2. Participants are not randomly selected, but come from our panel of respondents. The purpose of the poll is primarily qualitative, but experience since 2001 when we first started polling shows that with care, results from this sample can be interpreted to be indicative of results in the broader community.

You can join the panel by clicking on this link.