North Korea: another day, another dice with Armageddon

The second son, Kim Jung-chul is supposed to have significant support within the army, but other reports have discounted him as lacking the stamina, even being “too girlish” to lead the country. That leaves youngest son, Kim Jung-woon as the apparent successor. However, Jung-woon is only in his mid-20s in a society that respects age and seniority. If his father dies within the next few years, the opposition to such an immature successor could be intense.

In fact Robertson believes that a succession to Kim Jung-woon or either of his brothers is the least likely scenario, citing three other possibilities - collective leadership, military rule or disintegration.

Collective leadership might involve a group of senior figures from the Korean Workers Party, military generals and technocrats, possibly also involving members of Kim’s large extended family to give the mix an air of respectability. It would probably be the least threatening development for North Asia and the West generally.

The military is, on the surface at least, disciplined and powerful. However, its key officers are believed to be under constant surveillance by the State’s security services, while Kim Jong-il has been careful to cultivate links within the military establishment. In the end the generals might feel they have less to lose by supporting the status quo.

Robertson says the most harrowing scenario - and the one that is most dangerous to the West - is a descent of the nuclear-armed regime into chaos with the very real possibility of disruption to food supplies, demands for more civil and political rights and the rise of transnational crime.

“A breakdown in authority or continued instability in North Korea could provide ripe conditions for the rise of transnational crime,” he said, pointing out that failings in the rule of law and weak judicial systems allowed crime to flourish in Eastern Europe after the fall of communism.

“Add to that North Korea’s highly militarised society in which a large section of the population has spent time in the military and pretty much you have the ingredients for an organised and effective international crime network,” he said.

While Robertson did not take his argument much further, it is easy to see that enriched uranium would be a highly attractive product for which terrorist organisations such as al-Qaeda would be willing to pay considerable sums.

And the ultimate nightmare would be for the whole nuclear arsenal to fall into the hands of a megalomaniac with the desire to put the world to rights with a few well-chosen missiles.

Could it happen? A lot would depend on the will of major players in North Asia, including the United States, Japan, South Korea and China, to act quickly and effectively, probably without waiting for long-winded UN resolutions. Intervention would almost certainly be necessary, either from the south with American support or the north by China, or perhaps by both.

Either way, a Somalia-type meltdown in North Korea would present the international community with its biggest challenge, certainly since the end of the Cold War and probably since World War II.