North Korea’s nuclear tantrum

Growing increasingly wary of the North’s bellicosity, Seoul has quietly hardened its position. Now the nuclear weapon and missile tests have pushed Lee to embrace the Proliferation Security Initiative aimed at stopping North Korea’s nuclear business.

In a phone conversation with President Obama, the South Korean president reportedly urged him not to reward North Korea by pushing for talks. By joining the long-postponed adherence to the PSI, which is already signed by 92 countries, South Korea is signalling its resolve not to be cowed by North Korean moves.

Outside the peninsula, Kim’s latest provocations have also left his erstwhile allies China and Russia embarrassed. Russia indicates it will co-operate with the US in adopting a new UN resolution, calling for stronger sanction on the North. But the recent tensions have heightened China’s policy dilemma regarding Pyongyang. China’s past position of asking “all concerned parties” to “calm down” now looks quixotic in the face of North Korea’s one-sided provocations.

The question of whether to go on supporting Pyongyang or exercise influence to moderate it has begun to divide China’s policy establishment. On one hand lie “traditionalists” calling for continued support and on the other, “internationalists” asking for a “re-examination” of its past policy, according to Suh Jae Jean, a top North Korea watcher in Seoul. While policy change seems unlikely, any sign of China seriously reconsidering its policy of all-out protection of the Kim regime would have a crucial bearing on the future of the North Korean government.

All this makes Kim’s chances of emerging from this crisis richly rewarded, as has been the case so far, looking positively small. His gamble to get recognition as a nuclear power and be invited to the table by throwing a nuclear tantrum may have brought the peninsula to an unprecedented crisis. How he will resolve the crisis may have far reaching effects for the region and the world.