Troubled waters: China’s blue water PLA-N

Among other naval assets flaunted by the Motherland for the first time that day were nuclear-powered submarines. Alas, on show were the two ageing war-horses: the Long March 6 and the Long March 3 submarines. The more modern Jin-class (nuclear powered and nuclear armed) submarines were conspicuously absent.

China’s military build up, like most other activities the communist state engages in, is very, very difficult to gauge, given an absence of transparency. Many foreign intelligence agencies and private institutions do their best to estimate China’s military might, from which the following table - comparing present and forecasted fleet sizes for the RAN and the PLA-N - is an estimation.

When, not whether, the United States and her allies will comprehensively lose maritime dominance to China is the question.

While the Chinese and the Americans shift from 20th century technology (for example, diesel powered non stealth fighting vessels), the Australian Labor Party - if the Collins class fiasco and the White Paper’s focus on submarines that are neither nuclear powered nor nuclear armed are any guide - is looking to build overpriced, underperforming, non-lethal, antiquated, shiny big black, most likely unseaworthy dinosaurs. Not that the RAN could do much against the might of the PLA-N, even if the dinosaurs proved to be ocean going.

China’s rapid development of guided missile destroyers, state of the art submarines, as well as over-the-horizon radars, not to mention next-generation anti-ship cruise missiles, should take the breath away of every single Australian. But doesn’t.

The Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force (pointedly excluded from the list of 14 nations whose ships were invited to Qingdao) is convinced that the PLA-N will complete construction on two conventional aircraft carriers by 2015, and will begin construction on a further two nuclear carriers soon thereafter. This makes the Filipinos and the kimche eaters to their north very, very uneasy.

That said, China’s effort to develop a modern and deployable fleet is not unreasonable. And Australia surely welcomes that. So long as the world’s fastest growing economy relies heavily on seaborne trade, she has every right to secure her sea-lanes.

But it’s when her behaviour is no longer benign and starts to conflict with Australia’s interests, that’s the fear.

When it comes to safeguarding Australia’s interests, the two keys are to prevent regional conflict and to enhance our security. These twin challenges are most efficiently realised by maximising our “deterrence capacity”.