Swine flu will hit poor countries hardest

Swine flu is not the only disease to cause such anxiety. In 1997 in Hong Kong there was a serious outbreak of avian (bird) flu among humans. Even though only 18 people became ill, six died, suggesting this strain was particularly deadly. In response, all Hong Kong's poultry, about 1.5 million birds, were killed.

In 2003, the world braced itself for an avian flu pandemic, as reports of human deaths emerged from Europe and several South East Asian countries. This came hot on the heels of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, which damaged many South East Asian economies as tourism and commercial travel dwindled.

According to an Asian Development Bank report prepared by Jean Pierre Verbiest and Charissa Castillo, three aggressive steps were put in place to suppress the outbreak of avian flu in Asia: massive culling of chickens on a widespread scale, monitoring of humans, and the introduction of disease prevention measures at airports.

The impact on South East Asian economies was immediate and devastating.

Of course not to do anything would have been unacceptable. But it was the poorer farmers of the South East Asian countries who were affected most dramatically. They had fewer financial reserves and fewer government subsidies to cushion the blow, as all their livestock and therefore their source of income was destroyed.

A paper by the South Asian Regional Centre for Graduate study and Research in Agriculture noted that, typically:

In Vietnam, they experienced a 17.5 per cent loss in their total poultry production, equivalent to over 44 million birds. Citing the World Bank study, losses range from 0.3 to 1.8 per cent of Vietnam's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Moreover, 29 million birds or 14.5 per cent of the country's poultry population died, resulting in a radical 1.5 per cent loss in their GDP.

As it turned out, the consequences of the threat of avian flu turned out to be far greater than the disease itself. In the end, the pandemic did not eventuate. This was because of a combination of the dramatic bird cullings and an element of good luck. While avian flu crossed the species barrier from animals to humans, it moved from human to human only very slowly.

Rich countries stockpiled enough anti-virals during the avian flu scare to minimise the effect on their citizens if the swine flu hits. Poor countries have no such luxury. Rich countries are working on vaccines, which could be available in six months time. Once again, rich countries will be at a distinct advantage over poor countries.

Those countries which produce flu vaccines and anti-virals have had a little shot in the arm this week. Amid the general gloom of stock markets flattened by the global financial crisis, medical companies' stocks have risen since Monday, particularly those which produce anti-virals.

ABC TV's commentator Alan Kohler sagely noted on Monday night that an Australian company's share price had risen by 82 per cent because it produces one of the most promising modern anti-virals. Again, there are winners, but only in rich countries.

As the world holds our collective breath, hoping that this flu will peter out quickly, let's spare a thought for those poorest countries, which will take the losses the hardest.