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Labor's view of Australia - a nation of shopkeepers?

By Arthur Thomas - posted Tuesday, 21 April 2009


That sounds reasonable, but only in circumstances where employment provides the money for mortgages, hire purchase, and credit card debt allowing the consumers to "spend, spend, spend". If that is the case, then "jobs, jobs, jobs", it is.

But one has to ask, which industries can provide the jobs for those made redundant or facing redundancy?

The retail industry is reliant on consumers with readily disposable income or ready access to credit.

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Retail on its own cannot revitalise the Australian economy because of the imported foreign content, size of the population, and escalating government debt. Going down this path involves a Federal Government with a credit card mentality and increasing deficits.

The other option of course is a budget for weekly Powerball tickets.

Australia has evolved into a debt-reliant consumer economy focused on cheap imports. Reliance on debt and low savings levels has removed the individual's potential to amass the necessary savings that will be crucial to qualify under new standards on lines of credit for homes, motor vehicles, education, holidays, health, emergencies, and so on.

Responsible fiscal management is crucial for Australia's economic future.

The $14 billion deficit of December 2008 is expected to surge to $22.5 billion by June 2009. That does not include the impact of plummeting revenues from the resource sector, corporate taxes, GST, PAYE nor the $43 billion-plus high-speed broadband.

With our near future planned deficit estimated at around $200 billion, that $43 billion stimulus package would assist in saving considerable interest.

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With a total population of only 21 million, household debt of more than $1.2 trillion and household savings in negative territory, repaying that debt under the Labor Trio strategy will require one big mother of a shop-keeping nation.

Meanwhile Swan urges the banks to "lend, lend, lend", to stimulate an economy in which consumers are at risk of redundancy, and desperately trying to reduce, not increase debt. Without cheap and readily available credit, that ask just will not, and should not happen.

Bank lending is finally returning to "normalcy" in which factors for lending require equity, secure employment, and ability to repay. This will restrict approval of loans and credit card extensions.

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About the Author

Arthur Thomas is retired. He has extensive experience in the old Soviet, the new Russia, China, Central Asia and South East Asia.

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