Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

No one’s job is safe

By John Passant - posted Tuesday, 17 March 2009


Table: 2008 Gross Domestic Product fall in major economies on February 25

China’s figure is probably an overestimate. It is certainly about 4 per cent below previous levels so the fall of growth in China has been more precipitous than countries like the US.

The dictatorship has admitted it needs growth of at least 8 per cent to maintain “social stability” (employment). China’s integration into the world economy means its growth will fall rapidly in the coming months.

Advertisement

Last year 20 million Chinese migrant workers lost their jobs and went back to the countryside. This year the figure will be much higher.

Looking at the falling growth figures, what can we say? The US, China, Japan and Germany are the world’s four largest economies, producing about 50 per cent of world GDP. (If someone knows the exact figure let me know.)

Our major trading partners are China, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Our growth rate is falling more slowly than that of our trading partners. It is likely to join them and accelerate to their levels as their recessions deepen.

Capital investment and lending in Australia is drying up, at the same time trade with our major trading partners is about to collapse (along with prices for our resources.)

Because we are such an open economy our recession will be deeper than many other countries.

Advertisement

The large run down of inventories in the December quarter shows that companies are not producing new stock but drawing on already produced goods. This is ominous.

Conservative estimates are that there will be an extra 300,000 unemployed by June next year. This is 7 per cent unemployment. Taking into account underemployment there are probably 1.5 million unemployed and underemployed in Australia (or 13 per cent of the workforce).

Double digit official unemployment now looks a possibility, and possibly by the end of the year. This is an extra 600,000 on the economic scrap heap.

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. Page 2
  4. 3
  5. All

First published in En Passant on March 4, 2009.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

John Passant is a Canberra writer (www.enpassant.com.au) and member of Socialist Alternative.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by John Passant

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Photo of John Passant
Article Tools
Comment Comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy