An historic opportunity for political change in China

The West has needed Communist China's co-operation in the war on terror. Therefore the international environment seems benign to Chinese communists, and this situation is still showing no sign of changing in the short term.

However, the international economic environment can be fickle. The Chinese economy can hardly bloom in the midst of a global economic downturn. It has been predicted by observers and analysts that the China economic fantasy will disintegrate rapidly when Chinese annual economic growth is lower than 8 per cent. All kinds of social, moral and environmental problems will arise. Since China cannot be immune from the global economic tsunami and the time will soon come when the Chinese communist regime's power base is shaken and thrown into flux.

2009 is crucial year. 2009 is the Chinese Communist Party's 60th anniversary of the establishment of its rule. 2009 is the 60th year after the exodus of the Republic of China to Taiwan. 2009 is the 50th anniversary for the Tibetan spiritual leader and his people's exile in India. 2009 is also the 20th anniversary for the 1989 Chinese Democratic Movement.

Public resentment is simmering in today’s China, and the antagonism between the people and the government appointed officials is building into a seething resentment. The proclamation of the “08 Charter” is similar to the signature of 33 at the beginning of 1989. Any subtle change could tip the balance and become the catalyst to make 2009 the year of an historic shift in China. All political powers can prepare for a bid against the Chinese Communist Party.

The Chinese communist regime still has a strong foothold in the international political arena. Western democracies tolerated the Chinese Communists because of their own national and economic interests, and Communist China took the chance to effectively divide and overpower the ethical and legal arguments of the Western democracies. However, the domestic situation has become more and more severe for the Chinese Communists. They will continue to calmly and brutally suppress, detain and execute the seething civil resentment as long as their internationally illegal activities go unaddressed by external international powers.

The urgent need is there for the Chinese make a start at resolving the conflicts and problems which lie so deeply within their society. Today's civilian unrest has been exacerbated by the economic crisis. The major risk to the CCP is that even moderate social conflicts will be activated by this economic crisis. This has already been identified and documented by intellectuals and astute thinkers in mainland China. The Chinese economy will inevitably face serious crises, which have already caused economic havoc in regions spreading from the Zhujiang River Delta to the Yangtze River Delta.

This truly provides an historic opportunity for political change in China. That is, the choice to continue the policy of criminal repression of its citizens, and therefore agitate and pour oil on the furnace of anger and growing resentment, or to take a more stable long term approach, by developing more ethical policies to diffuse the mounting social dissent.

It is also a matter of perception as to whether the CCP sees this as a threat, or as the final opportunity to start walking the long road of rebuilding a very tarnished national and international reputation, and to evolve into a globally respected leadership. The latter can only be done if major steps are taken towards the introduction of political democracy.

There is a very long way to go.