America at the crossroads. Again

Or Professor Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago:

As during the Great Depression and in many debt restructurings, it makes sense in the current contingency to mandate a partial debt forgiveness or a debt-for-equity swap in the financial sector. It has the benefit of being a well-tested strategy in the private sector and it leaves the taxpayers out of the picture. But if it is so simple, why no expert has mentioned it?

The major players in the financial sector do not like it. It is much more appealing for the financial industry to be bailed out at taxpayers’ expense than to bear their share of pain. Forcing a debt-for-equity swap or a debt forgiveness would be no greater a violation of private property rights than a massive bailout, but it faces much stronger political opposition. The appeal of the Paulson solution is that it taxes the many and benefits the few. Since the many (we, the taxpayers) are dispersed, we cannot put up a good fight in Capitol Hill; while the financial industry is well represented at all the levels. It is enough to say that for 6 of the last 13 years, the Secretary of Treasury was a Goldman Sachs alumnus. But, as financial experts, this silence is also our responsibility. Just as it is difficult to find a doctor willing to testify against another doctor in a malpractice suit, no matter how egregious the case, finance experts in both political parties are too friendly to the industry they study and work in.

The decisions that will be made this weekend matter not just to the prospects of the US economy in the year to come; they will shape the type of capitalism we will live in for the next 50 years. Do we want to live in a system where profits are private, but losses are socialised? Where taxpayer money is used to prop up failed firms? Or do we want to live in a system where people are held responsible for their decisions, where imprudent behaviour is penalised and prudent behaviour rewarded? For somebody like me who believes strongly in the free market system, the most serious risk of the current situation is that the interest of few financiers will undermine the fundamental workings of the capitalist system. The time has come to save capitalism from the capitalists.

Nicholas [Gruen] already drew attention to Steve Waldman of Interfluidity who takes a similar, if slightly more radical, approach.

All these proposals allocate losses (and potential profits whenever this crisis is finally over) in a far more equitable manner. They also have the great virtue of enabling the market, as much as is possible in such dire circumstances, to determine the ongoing pricing of assets. Last, and by no means least, they would lay the foundation for a more sensibly structured financial system.

Paul Krugman, as he often does, summed things up nicely:

I’m aware that Congress is under enormous pressure to agree to the Paulson plan in the next few days, with at most a few modifications that make it slightly less bad. Basically, after having spent a year and a half telling everyone that things were under control, the Bush administration says that the sky is falling, and that to save the world we have to do exactly what it says now now now.

But I’d urge Congress to pause for a minute, take a deep breath, and try to seriously rework the structure of the plan, making it a plan that addresses the real problem. Don’t let yourself be railroaded - if this plan goes through in anything like its current form, we’ll all be very sorry in the not-too-distant future.

Recent history isn’t all that encouraging but one can only hope these saner voices make themselves heard above the panic in time to avert an even greater catastrophe.