Iran aims to get shanghaied

Second, full membership in the SCO also offers Iran military and strategic advantages. The Islamic Republic is in fact seeking to boost the existing regional security arrangements, to ultimately reduce the role and presence of external powers. This same strategy led Tehran to invest in the 2007 Caspian Sea Summit. On that occasion, Iran obtained a two-part security arrangement indicating a general commitment to a “non-aggression policy,” and a specific promise of each participant country to deny the use of their territory for military actions against other Caspian Sea states. Moreover Iran envisions a more powerful and active SCO, which would ideally develop into a regional security organisation to counterweight NATO - a “NATO of the East” (as the Iranian state-owned radio described the SCO on August 27).

The membership debate

The question of Iranian membership in the SCO has to be analysed in the context of the ongoing internal debate regarding the expansion of the organisation, which recently led the Heads of State Council to create an ad hoc group to devise potential strategies and mechanisms for such enlargement to take place.

However, the issue of Iran’s entry in the SCO raises additional and more complex political and strategic questions that will likely affect the vision and evolution of the organisation. Specifically, in the context of the ongoing confrontation between Iran and the United States, the country’s entry into the SCO as permanent member would assume a larger geopolitical significance. In fact, although the SCO was not conceived as an opponent to NATO, the current political context would make the Unites States extremely suspicious of the Russian-Chinese-Iranian military alliance, which would likely be seen as an attempt to shift the global balance of power.

Therefore, given the complexity of the issue, all permanent members have developed different approaches with respect to the Iranian membership question. The most supportive member so far has been Tajikistan. For instance, during the August 2008 Summit Tajik Foreign Minister Hamrokhan Zarifi declared that the Iranian entry into the SCO would empower the regional group. Kazakhstan also has been in favor of Tehran, despite of its strong relations with the US. However, in determining whether Iran will indeed join the SCO as a permanent member, China and Russia’s posture will be particularly crucial.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has expressed his country’s interest in increasing the level of co-operation and participation of observer states within the SCO and he has also praised Iran for its positive impact on the organisation. However, Russia has not yet openly advocated in favour of Tehran’s full membership, and it is perhaps conditioning its sponsorship to a stronger Iranian support for Moscow’s policies. Russia is seeking closer and stronger allies within the SCO; especially after, during the last war with Georgia, other permanent members fell short of supporting Russia’s actions, and instead issued a statement denouncing the use of force and calling for respect for every country's territorial integrity. In this context, Russia may be interested in using its support for Iran’s permanent membership as a bargaining chip in return for a stronger backing from the Islamic Republic.

Finally, China may be the real wildcard in determining whether Iran will join the SCO. On the one hand, China has an interested in avoiding an open confrontation with the United States. On the other hand, China has been boosting its ties with Iran and, on December 3, 2008, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said that his country plans to maintain contact with Iran and conduct mutually beneficial co-operation with the Islamic Republic. Previously, China had also stated that it welcomed Iran’s interest in SCO membership.

In sum, the question of the SCO expansion in general, and of the Iranian permanent membership more specifically, raises crucial strategic questions that will impact the future of the regional organisation, as well as the relations within its members and with the rest of the international community.