The China house of cards - a 2009 scenario

Shelving the Green GDP trial in 2005 now conceals the horrendous economic impact of environmental degradation and rising pollution, plus increasing shortages and contamination of water resources.

Expanding and merging deserts, soil contamination, infrastructure development, industry, and urbanisation projects continue to displace and enrage increasing numbers of farmers.

Scrutiny of publicised "successful" regeneration projects reveals massive failures, rorts, cover-ups, and "innovative" statistical reporting.

Stimulus package bailouts

To prevent collapse of iconic state-owned enterprises, China is pumping billions of dollars into bailouts across the board. Oil, steel, aluminium, mining, car making, construction, aviation, energy sector, and the newly upgraded airlines, are just a few.

The CCP chooses to ignore the problems, exudes confidence, and trumpets its urbanisation program as the solution to employing displaced farmers and rural workers.

Crunching the numbers however, discredits the claims.

Importance of the 1st half of 2009

The economic mirage was rapidly fading by late 2008. The real state of China's economy will emerge early 2009, as overcapacity in several strategic industries accelerate closures, slowdowns, and unemployment.

The global community will closely monitor China's progress during the first, and especially second, quarters of 2009. The Chinese New Year period will cause some confusion for the first quarter results of 2009.

2009 and beyond

China ignores the basic laws of supply and demand and the need for an orderly economic expansion of nations other than China.