Egyptian complicity exposes deep fear of Iran

Their aim was to create enough dissent at the living conditions in the dense territory that Gazans would revolt against Hamas without the Israelis or Egyptians lifting a finger. After two years of the blockade, the revolt never came.

Plan C (2) - Gaza today

Two days prior to Israel's 2008 Christmas War on Gaza, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni met Mubarak in Cairo, which many see as an Egyptian green light to the attacks.

The timing of Israel's war also took into consideration the internal politics of key states. Israel's elections are a month away, and Livni's Kadima party trailed behind the Likud hawk, Benjamin Netanyahu. Kadima is gambling on the military offensive boosting Livni's polling.

It is also neatly timed during the US presidential transition to avoid any concrete intervention from Washington. President-elect Barack Obama, while maintaining the US' bias towards Israel, has hinted at placing peace as a priority and negotiating with Iran. While he has assured Israel that its security is high on his agenda, Obama has also shown a willingness to diverge from the Likudnik view of what is required to guarantee such a security.

Obama wants to negotiate with Iran and Syria to ensure a smooth, trouble-free withdrawal of his forces from Iraq. He wants to allay fears of a military confrontation with Iran, which he hopes will eventually lead the Iranians to restrain Hezbollah and Hamas, bringing sustained calm and security to Israel.

The Likudniks don't share a similar approach on securing Israel. The hawks believe the display of brutal power will eventually bring them security, despite the fact that 60 years of this policy has only brought Israel greater insecurity.

The war is also partly aimed at complicating any plan Obama had to restore an atmosphere of calm and dialogue in the Middle East. The Israeli attack has effectively re-ignited inter-Arab tension, ended Syria-Israeli talks, emboldened groups like Hamas, Hezbollah and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and given Iran greater determination to pursue a hardline policy (Iranian elections are also scheduled for mid-2009). This serves the Likudniks' purpose of maintaining an atmosphere of tension and resentment, giving them reason to pursue a militaristic approach to the region.

Egypt's aim, along with Saudi Arabia, is currently in line with the Likudniks and hawks in Washington. They view Iran as an existential threat that needs to be contained at any cost. The pro-American axis is adamant it should prevent a Hezbollah-like situation in Gaza, and aims to dislodge Hamas from power while it is still weak.

The reality

Egypt and Saudi Arabia's blind obsession with Iran has only created greater resentment and determination among the Arab street to have such leaderships removed. The open and direct accusation of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah that Egypt is an accomplice in Israel's war is indeed new territory in inter-Arab rivalry.

Despite existing tension, Arabs have tended not to publicly shame each other, and maintain their disputes behind closed doors. However, Hezbollah's public condemnation of Egypt is as much transparent as Mubarak's complicity in attempting to destroy Hamas.

While Arab satellite networks broadcast strewn Palestinian bodies and wailing mothers for their lost children, Egypt sends its troops to the Gaza border to prevent the Palestinians from breaking through the Rafah crossing, the only border crossing between Egypt and Gaza.

Egypt has brought its complicity in Israel’s attacks out in the open, and Hezbollah has responded in kind.