New Lebanon air force no threat to Israel

The most attractive aspect of Russian military transactions is that no political conditions or restrictions on use are attached. Meanwhile, the US is forever careful to avoid undermining Israel’s interests, placing restrictions on its own ability to make deals with Israel’s neighbours. Lebanon can ill afford to become wedged between a US-Russian power struggle in the Middle East, but it is equally difficult to resist the alluring offerings of Moscow.

Local impact

Russia's decision to become a weapons supplier to Lebanon comes after Beirut’s frustration at the US’ slow pace to fulfil its promise to supply the Lebanese military with adequate weapons. Should Lebanon become dependent on Russia for military assistance, America's current allies in the country could see an interest in shifting closer to Moscow. Not exactly a desired outcome for the US, hence its decision to counter the Russian deal by announcing it will deliver M-60 tanks to the Lebanese Army by next autumn.

There has been little comment from the Lebanese Opposition and Hezbollah on the deal, although pro-Opposition media, Iran and Syria have all welcomed the deal. Parliamentary elections scheduled for mid-2009 could see the Opposition win majority and form government, placing Hezbollah in charge of Lebanon's military forces.

Indeed, such a victory would intensify Israeli and American objections to the Russian arms deal.

Internal divisions plague military

Regardless of Moscow’s donation, Lebanon's military will remain considerably weaker than that of its neighbours. Lebanon's internal divisions and flawed political system ensures instability and tension remains constant. The political system divides the country into sectarian cantons, each serving their own interest. This significantly weakens the Lebanese national interest, and the institutions created to serve it.

The Lebanese Army is the country's main national institution. Its weakness is a result of continued political infighting, rampant corruption, a poor economy, and a lack of centralised power. A strong military requires a strong economic and political will. Neither exist at present, and no political party in Lebanon has demonstrated a desire to change the status quo or enact desperately needed reforms of any kind, be it social, economic or political.

Until the country's political leaders summon enough will power to place the Lebanese national interest at the forefront of their agenda and abandon tribal/sectarian politics, nothing will change.

While Lebanon remains divided, Israel has little to worry about.