Costa geriatrica coming soon to a suburb near you

The world is currently undergoing a demographic revolution of historic proportions. At no time in our history have there been so many old people around. In many countries old people now outnumber young people, a state of affairs that has never before existed in human history.

Today, the world’s population includes more than 600 million people aged over 65, and by 2030 there will be at least one billion. Globally, old people are increasing at an annual rate almost twice that of the population as a whole and the fastest growing group are the oldest old, those aged over 80.

By 2050 more than 11 per cent of the world’s population or 1 billion people will be aged over 70 including 21 per cent of Europe’s population and 15.4 per cent in North America. The population of developed countries and many developing ones are ageing rapidly.

As recently as 1950 no country in the world had a median age greater than 36. By 2050 27 countries will have a median age of 50 or more. Most will be in Europe but there will also be a number of Asian-Pacific countries. This represents a real global challenge.

By 2050, the age composition of nearly every country will have moved to a situation where the old outnumber the young. Some countries such as Japan are ageing at an incredible rate. Shortly after World War II only 5 per cent of the Japanese population were aged over 65, well below that of Britain, France and the USA. Today the figure is 20 per cent and by 2030 it will be 30 per cent. The main reason for this demographic revolution has been falling fertility. Many developed countries are now either close to or below the replacement level of 2.2 children per family.

But what defines old age? Although we tend to generally classify all those aged over 60 or 65 as old, there is no general agreement as to what constitutes a definition of old age. The UN has no standard definition, and most countries continue to use those aged 60+ or 65+ as their benchmark, With respect to the oldest old there is even less agreement, with countries variously describing them as being aged 70+, 75+, 80+ or 85+. This raises the question as to whether being over 60 or 65 can today be classified as “old”, when life expectancy in many developed countries is over 80 years and many 60+s remain healthy, active and in the workforce with a life expectancy of 20 years or more.

Can what was deemed “old” 100 or so years ago when aged pensions were first introduced, be considered as “old” today? Arguably not, and possibly yesterday’s “old” is now today’s “middle age” with only those aged over 75 or 80 considered “old”.

Whatever definition we adopt there seems little doubt that many societies are ageing rapidly and that the increasing numbers of old people will have sweeping social, economic and political consequences. Every aspect of our society will be affected including our work, healthcare, pensions, public services, housing, education and even perhaps our security.

Ageing populations mean that we are rapidly approaching a situation where an increasing number of health and pension beneficiaries are supported by a relatively smaller number of working age people. This may produce heavier tax demands on working age adults in order to maintain a steady flow of benefits to older groups. Many developed countries have faced this dilemma by importing large numbers of young migrant labourers, but the ageing of many parts of the world and the currently precarious economic situation may truncate such measures. Perhaps age pensions should be withheld until about age 70 or 75 given the substantial changes in life expectancy?

Consider China. By 2030 about 16 per cent of the population will be aged over 65 and it will be the first country to significantly age without being in an advanced state. But it will be the growth of the oldest old that may well be the most significant demographic trend. The number of people in China aged over 70 will increase five-fold over the next 30-40 years. By 2050 there will be about 350 million Chinese aged over 65 and 240 million Chinese aged over 70 or 17 per cent of the total population.

The walking stick and wheelchair industries are in for a bonanza!

Yet this will create many problems about the support and care of the elderly most of whom will be forced to rely on state pensions. Traditionally, many Asian-Pacific societies relied on the extended family network to look after the elderly, but increasing migration, urbanisation and family fragmentation is rapidly eroding this. In the next few years possibly 25 per cent of older Chinese will have no living son to rely on for support. The implications for social and economic security are profound.

Even in our own society, family support is crucial in the case of the oldest old whose physical and health needs are greater. Australia and New Zealand are also ageing rapidly. In Australia within 35 years there will be at least 6.5 million people aged over 65, including 1 million over 85. New Zealand, which is ageing at a slightly slower rate, will still have more than 1.2 million aged over 65, or 22 per cent of the total population within 30 years.

While there are marked differences between regions, both Australia and New Zealand will have their distinctive “costa geriatrica” where suburbs emerge where the old vastly out number all other groups. One already sees this in parts of Australia such as Queenscliffe in Victoria and Victor Harbour in South Australia, where people aged over 65 already comprise a third of the total population.

Families are also changing. Falling fertility and longer life are rapidly restructuring our family’s composition. Now we are seeing many more multi-generational families, what have come to be called “beanpole families” where great grandparents, grandparents, parents, grandchildren and great grandchildren intermingle. Absent are the many siblings, uncles, aunts, nephews and nieces of yesteryear.

It is not only families that will change but also our shopping areas. In this new demographic world it will be the old who command the most disposable resources and our High Streets will have to recognise this and change to accommodate the grey market rather than just cater for the young.

The increasing female share of our older population is also notable. In most countries older women greatly outnumber older men. In Australia, for example, there will be almost 170 females for every 100 males aged over 80 by 2050. The implications of this are profound as older women are more likely to be widowed, have less work experience and less access to resources.

Should we be concerned about the advent of a middle-aged or geriatric world? Is there any substance in recent claims that ageing populations constitute a greater threat than climate change?

Well, global ageing offers both challenges and opportunities. It is a rich resource for present and future generations and it need not necessarily be associated with retirement from work, increasing dependency, financial struggle, ill-health and social and spatial exclusion. Rather we need to see the pluses in ageing and need to embrace things like older work forces and flexible working arrangements, and create an environment which values age, experience, knowledge, wisdom, reliability and creativity.

That said, we do need to examine the adequacy of our housing, workplaces, transport and social services for the support of the old and ensure that the principles of fairness, justice and equity apply to all regardless of age.