Don't mention the economic crisis - there's an election on

There is an election on in the ACT on October 18. Enthusiasm is not a word to associate with it.

In the run up to the election, ACT politicians and would-be politicians are sprouting the usual nonsense. Better hospitals and a better health system. Better education. Better transport.

This is from people whose track record when in government in the ACT (both Labor and the Liberals) has been closed schools, longer waiting times at hospitals, less availability of local doctors, a useless bus system and a white horse major road that doesn’t actually do what our leaders said it would at a cost, so far, of $120 million.

But something is missing from all the chatter, white noise and waving political gnomes standing on the side of major roads as you drive to work.

Not one Canberra politician has actually mentioned the global economic crisis.

Even at a superficial level you’d think some of them, if they were truthful and honest, might be considering adding a caveat to their promises. You know, something like: “Paid maternity leave in the ACT Public Service will be extended to 18 weeks and there will be paternity leave of two weeks. This of course is subject to the Territory’s financial situation being robust enough to enable us to afford such a cost despite the global economic crisis.”

Funny, but I haven’t heard one politician mutter this truth contained in that last sentence. (The ALP has in fact offered an 18-week paid maternity leave scheme for its employees. But no mention of whether there is the ability to fund it.)

This conspiracy of silence about the impact of the economic crisis on the ACT makes me think our politicians know that we are in for tough times ahead but that such honesty might impact on their capacity to get elected. So they pretend the crisis doesn’t exist.

ACT Treasury might be able to help us here. To better inform voters like me, I suggest that before October 18 they release their analysis of what our local economy will be like in a year. Even releasing advice they have been giving the Chief Minister recently about our future economic prospects would help us as citizens make an informed choice.

As a layman, let me make a few assertions about the impact of the global crisis on the Canberra economy.

Commercial interest rates will remain high or rise since banks are frightened to lend to themselves, let alone us. Credit will become much tighter.

The crisis in the financial system will spread into the real economy.

And the possible impact of these things? Business activity in the ACT will decline. Unemployment will increase, perhaps markedly. The number of housing loans will drop. Housing prices will fall. Revenue (for example, payroll tax, betterment tax and land tax,) will decline. GST revenue will slow down. Rudd will cut federal government grants to the states and territories as Commonwealth revenue falls.

This could mean less spending from the Territory Government, and perhaps an attack on Territory public services and public servants including sacking teachers and nurses.

What about the $500 million in promises both major parties have made? Kiss them goodbye if our local economy (as is possible) tanks.

If the campaign is becoming a theatre of the surreal, the seeming rise of the Greens presents new questions.

A 10 per cent swing against the majority Labor Government in the polls has been almost entirely to the Greens. The Liberals have not benefited at all.

The polls to date suggest one possible outcome: Labor winning seven seats, the Liberals six and the Greens four. In the last election in 2004 Labor won nine seats - a majority; the Liberals seven (with one since leaving and setting up his own party) and the Greens one.

The predicted four seats for the Greens may be overstating the case somewhat but it is clear that Labor will not retain a majority and the Liberals will not win one.

Yet the Greens refuse to state who they would support as Chief Minister if they, as is likely, hold the balance of power. They are doing this because they hope to pick up some Liberal voters as well as Labor voters. In other words their strategy appears to be little more than that adopted by the Democrats - attract the left of the Liberals and disaffected ALP voters.

The Democrats succeeded for 30 years in balancing these unstable elements, but eventually folded because of that very balancing act. If the Greens adopt the same approach, the results could be the same as the Democrats, only quicker.

Of course the environment remains a long term winner for the Greens so they will be around for a while yet. The question is whether they can break out of the ghetto of environment-only politics and attract a wider following.

The Greens need to decide if they are a party to the left of the ALP or not. One indication of that would be to come out in support of the Labor nominee for Chief Minister now.

This election could be the end for Jon Stanhope, the current Labor Chief Minister. If the ALP does lose its majority, what are the odds on Katy Gallagher, the present Deputy Chief Minister, being the ALP’s candidate (assuming she retains her seat)? Quite short, I suspect.

The Greens should, before the election, also announce that they will refuse to participate in a minority ALP Government (thus retaining the ability to attack Labor from the left) but guaranteeing supply for that government. They should also make it clear that they will oppose any attacks on workers and their jobs, wages and conditions. Let them proclaim they put people before profit.

If they join the Ministry, any illusions about the Greens could quickly disappear since the role of the state in managing capitalism will see the Greens attack the very base that got them into power. They will, if in government with the ALP as the economy falters, possibly support and undertake attacks on workers. Like Peter Garrett the host will take over the parasite, and destroy it.

The elections are a sideshow. With a rapidly declining economic climate, who knows what these so called representatives will do once in Parliament and power?

The real game? It’s where labour and capital intersect at the workplace. If workers accept wage cuts, jobs losses and the destruction of important public services, then whoever is elected can get away with murder. If workers fight back, the whole world is changed. The struggle for better wages and defence of jobs opens up the possibility of a struggle for a better world, one where workers run society democratically to produce goods and services to satisfy human need - socialism.

But just as no local politician dare mention the economic crisis, no local politician is talking about a rational society at all. We are left with the madness of capitalism.