North Korea: life after Kim

In the interest of promoting stability on the Korean peninsula, China co-operates to a significant degree in pushing for denuclearisation of North Korea. As for Seoul, it hopes to restart inter-border talks with the North, in the hope of avoiding any friction that can indirectly bolster hardliners in Pyongyang. Seoul is thus expected to restart its food aid, softening an earlier position that it would withhold aid unless the North agreed on denuclearisation. At the same time, the US is committed to delivering half a million tons of food aid, to encourage the North to accept a verifiable inspection of its nuclear facility in Yongbyon, now shut down and in the process of dismantlement under the February 2007 agreement at the Beijing Six-Party talks.

But the possibility of a political vacuum in Pyongyang complicates denuclearisation. Days before rumours surfaced of Kim’s hospitalisation, the North Korean foreign ministry issued a statement abruptly stopping its “disabling” work on its reactor. The action has triggered speculation that the North Korean military, responding to the crisis of Kim’s surgery, ordered the suspension, instigated by the military leaders in the powerful National Defence Commission.

This response could foreshadow difficulties in the operation of the junta-like collective leadership system, bringing military hardliners at loggerheads with civilian party leaders who have conducted diplomatic talks at Six-Party meetings in Beijing. Depending on the situation, military hardliners could checkmate civilian initiatives from the party. Disabling of the nuclear facility weakens the military in the internal power structure.

The US and South Korea, while anxious to see the North avoid any political complications on the way to consolidation of a new leadership, remain committed to seeking denuclearisation. Japan, for its part, is eager to move on to talks about the still unresolved cases of abduction of its citizens. This plus the security threat posed by the North’s achievement in the production of long-range ballistic missiles have deepened Tokyo’s concern.

For South Korea and China, the prospect of changing of the guards in North Korea - or for that matter in the event of eruption of a naked power struggle - is of special interest. While China stands worried that any power struggle between rival military factions could result in a massive refugee outflow across its border, thus requiring some intervention, South Korea is wary of any scenario resulting in untimely territorial reunification, such as what happened in Germany after the 1990 collapse of East German regime. Staggering economic and social costs of German reunification has made a gradualist approach a firm national consensus in South Korea.

Long-term security jitters have effectively precluded any possibility of South Korea intervening in the North’s political upheavals. Rather, Seoul maintains close consultation with Beijing and Washington hoping to indirectly manage potential crisis. In Seoul, few analysts see the possibility of armed power struggle openly flaring up in the North, with refugees flowing south across the border. Yet, political uncertainty in North Korea, with its nuclear arsenal and missile technology, its 1.1-million- strong army and a population long indoctrinated against capitalist enemies may be making regional powers wistful about the time when Kim dynasty was in firm control.

In the past one complained about the unpredictability of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, who was often called crazy as a fox. Now with him suddenly vanishing from the public view, Seoul, Beijing and Washington have become painfully aware of the stabilising influence he has had in the power system. Without Kim Jong Il, North Korea is poised to enter uncharted territory with unpredictable and potentially grave consequences for the world.