Another year and another PM in Japan

The election of Taro Aso as Japan’s 59th prime minister of the modern era, seems certain to usher in a period on introspection for the world’s second-largest economic power.

While Mr Aso is publicly saying his priority is to launch a series of economic reforms over a three-year period aimed at stimulating the private sector, most observers believe his energies will be directed into manoeuvring his Liberal Democratic Party into a snap general election he hopes it can win.

That could be any time between now and next September when an election must be held. Until then, the leadership will be firmly focused on the public opinion polls.

The comic-reading Mr Aso, who likes to emphasise his family’s links with the Satsuma samurai clan, is known to take a more right-wing position on many issues than his predecessor, the unpopular and largely ineffective Yasuo Fukuda, but the question is whether he will be in a position to exercise his influence in any meaningful way, at least in the short term.

He will face the same problem that dogged Mr Fukuda - an Upper House controlled by the Opposition that senses it has a real chance of prising loose the LDP’s 12-year grip on power. His hope, and many people will see it as a forlorn hope, is to get an early “bounce” in the ratings that will allow him to go to the electorate and secure another term for his embattled party.

But the signs are that the Japanese public is becoming jaundiced with revolving door leaderships. “Another year, another PM” says Richard Jerram, chief economist of Macquarie Securities in Tokyo, noting that Mr Fukuda had lasted just 12 months in office since replacing Shinzo Abe, himself a one-year wonder. At 68 and the LDP’s current Secretary General, Mr Aso is hardly likely to inspire confidence as a fresh face with radical measures to spark the nation’s political and economic revival.

Speaking in Canberra last week [eds September 16] Hiroshi Takaku, a former journalist now involved in political exchange programs between Japan, Australia and the United States, says the fundamental problem in his country is one of governance. “There are structural difficulties at all levels of government - the people are angry,” he said.

He believes the LDP has lost an excellent opportunity to promote a new generation into power. “However, the faction leaders were unwilling to lose influence, so we are seeing the traditional party reaction to a change of leadership,” he said.

“I do not believe Mr Aso has the capability to challenge the bureaucracy which is the real power broker. The public will see through him soon enough.”

However, he believes the current internal turbulence will not have any long-term effect on Japan’s relationship with Australia. “There has been a great deal of talk that with the election of the Labor Government in Australia and with Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, there will be a policy shift towards China - I do not believe this will be true,” he said.

“I think events surrounding the Olympic Torch Relay and the Beijing Olympics themselves have emphasised that there is no democracy or freedom of speech in China.

“Japan needs Australia to work with it in the Asia-Pacific region where it is still mistrusted because of the legacy of World War II.”

Mr Takaku says the thorny question of Japan’s whaling operations can be resolved through sensible negotiation. “I would hope Australia avoids taking the case to the International Court of Justice as this will only inflame nationalistic feelings in Japan and harden the nation’s response,” he said.

“The market share of whale meat is less than 1 per cent and many young Japanese have never tasted it. The whalers are having trouble recruiting crews and can’t afford to purchase a new whaling ship.”

The industry could well die a natural death in Japan if the anti-whaling nations were willing to compromise, such as allowing Japan to continue catching whales in its own offshore waters. “It is important that you do not put us into a corner,” he said.

His thoughts were echoed by the Head of the East Asian Bureau of Economic Research and the East Asia Forum, Peter Drysdale. “There have been diplomatic wobbles on both sides, but this is not unusual with Japan at the beginning of new governments in Australia of either stripe,” he said.

“They do remind us that the relationship requires its own kind of diplomacy, but the common strategic interests remain strong. Japan is still Australia’s largest export market; Japan is Australia’s closest political partner in East Asia and both Australia and Japan have inextricable political and security ties with the United States.

“Japan is either the largest (at current international market prices) or the second largest (at purchasing power parity) economy in Asia and is far and away the most sophisticated and wealthy one as well as being an open and vibrant democracy.”

However, in a recent address to the ACT Branch of the Australian Institute of International Affairs, Professor Drysdale issued a warning that the “huge assets” in the relationship between the two countries, built up over 50 years, are being allowed to waste away, and pointed to the “limited and pretty ratty” media coverage of Mr Rudd’s visit to Japan earlier this year.

“In the past many of Australia’s top journalists were schooled in Japan - there is much less chance of that now,” he said. “The Fairfax Group has had no bureau in Japan for some time and Australia’s only financial newspaper has no correspondent in Australia’s largest economic partner.

“This is a national disgrace which both denies public access to important background on developments in the Japanese economy and politics and takes the pressure off the need for good management of the relationship.”

He also criticised the former Liberal Government for “discouraging elevation of community commitment to the arduous task of being Asia-literate” and the decline in intellectual dialogue between the two countries.

Professor Drysdale noted that the Australia-Japan relationship has always needed to be nurtured with a special brand of diplomacy. For many years it was required in the face of the understandable antagonisms that fired the wartime generation.

That has largely faded into history, but it would be unfortunate if a distracted Japanese Government or series of governments allow a new breed of entrepreneurs, economists and politicians to succumb to the siren song of China just when a strategic partnership with Australia holds such intriguing possibilities, for both countries and for the region as a whole.