US-backed Georgia pokes the Russian bear

The consequences on Russia's western rim of post-communist states are unpredictable. In Ukraine, Poland and the three Baltic states, there was an initial emotional display of sympathy for Georgia. The war triggered a Polish decision to install a US-offered missile defence system that Moscow sees as anti-Russian. Fortunately, Poland has no Russian minority or border disputes with Russia.

The Baltic republics will know now that any violation of the human rights of the ethnic Russian communities in those countries will lead to forceful Russian intervention. Ukraine will be well advised to tread more softly with its bigger neighbour. The war has raised the bar of what Moscow expects of its “near abroad”. Provocative encirclement strategies encouraged by the Bush administration and Washington neo-cons have had their day.

These facts are not well understood in the US. The viscerally anti-Russian US media reporting of the war feeds public opinion already so inclined.

The war thus favours Republican-style international truculence and ignoring of realities. Bush's jibe that Russia has failed the test of international civilised behaviour will help John McCain, and force Barack Obama to follow in his wake. Obama will be portrayed as weak if he does so, and as not to be trusted with national security if he does not.

Georgia poses a test for Kevin Rudd, too. Will he go with West European prudence and moderation, or echo Washington's more aggressive rhetoric? If he is serious about Australia's contribution to international security, and our future relations with an important world power, he will do the former.