China could well be a problem for Australia

China may be strengthening military links with East Timor with the eventual aim of firm military ties in the distant future. The prospect of a Chinese naval base or air base in East Timor may sound bizarre at present but both countries have proven surprising and unorthodox. Chinese bases on East Timor would throw Australia’s best laid strategic expectations way out of kilter.

On April 12, 2008 East Timor signed a $28 million deal with China to buy two advanced patrol boats. The contract for the patrol boats provides for 30 East Timorese defence force personnel to be trained in China. The patrol boats, however, may come with strings attached. They may prove too expensive for East Timor to operate without continuing Chinese financial support and in any case East Timor may require Chinese technicians to maintain the boats. The offer of weapons is a potent way to massage East Timor’s desire for prestige and military independence.

Australia may have been reluctant to supply patrol boats because it may see East Timor’s Defence Force as a politically disruptive element. Substantial weapons aid might worsen this situation. East Timor’s army already has a record of mutiny and attempted coup. Its politicisation is in a sense understandable given its long guerilla struggle against the Indonesians. Australia, unlike China, lives close to East Timor and so puts a premium on stable government.

China has deepened East Timor’s sense of gratitude by constructing that country’s Foreign Ministry building, Presidential Palace and future Defense Force headquarters. To have a foreign power build such key national security buildings is unusual. It is therefore important that these buildings are checked or “swept” for hidden bugs as China may also be expecting some electronic intelligence for its generosity.

China may not be an intentional threat but its sheer size and universally shared desire for energy security is a problem.

If global warming is a valid concern then China’s coal use will comprehensively nullify the good intentions of Australia’s carbon tax scheme. Other than through submarine and land-based nuclear missiles China is unable to threaten Australia militarily at present. East Timor’s long term status is highly unpredictable and a far worse worry than the Australian Government is willing to admit. In the meantime China is relying on soft power to make political and strategic inroads into our region through basically buying influence.