'Populate or perish'?

Despite the fact that fertility decline continues throughout parts of Asia and that parts of the Middle East are showing signs of a decline, the populations of 50 developing countries are likely to double by the middle of this century with several of the poorest tripling their population. In much of Sub-Saharan Africa traditionally high fertility and large families will persist and in addition, there is recent evidence that fertility decline has stalled in countries like Egypt, Bangladesh and Malaysia. Despite this, the world is getting older as birth rates continue to decline.

To some our own society is “burdened” by low fertility and increasing age dependency, which ultimately place pressure upon things like workforce participation and pension systems. By contrast in developing countries discussion is more about large numbers of young people and their impact upon social and economic security.

Population ageing is one trend in Australia that we can predict with some degree of accuracy. Within 25 years roughly one quarter of all Australians will be aged over 65 and over this period the fastest growing sector of the population will be those aged over 80 - the “oldest old”. Added to this Australia’s birth rate now stands at the lowest it has ever been.

Do we need to worry about such things? Well it is likely that the decade of the 2020s will emerge as a turning point of maximum political, social and economic change as the impacts of extremely low fertility and population ageing in developed countries begin to bite and many developing countries experience a boom of young adults reflecting earlier decades of high fertility.

As far as our own society is concerned one is tempted to say that States and churches should not be in the business of pushing people to have more children. If women in their 20s and 30s elect for only one child or decline to engage in child-bearing and direct their energies towards a job and career or remaining unmarried, then that is up to them.

Perhaps the best way to handle declining fertility and a shrinking population would be to encourage and support women who wish to balance a career with childbirth, improve the economic prospects of young families, support people to work longer, and develop an immigration policy that is sympathetic to social and economic needs.