Childless females are voting for themselves

"Someone should tell the spin doctors writing all those Labor speeches with the words 'working families' before every full stop that there are about four million people aged 15 to 44 in Australia and half of them don't have children. For the crucial 25-34 group, the figure is almost the same," Black said.

If the electoral analysis of the Australian Development Strategies is correct, then the ALP will need to do a rethink at the next election. The rise of rational self-interest in a pluralist society is nothing new. What is new is the rise of a large niche of inner urban voters who are alloyed to free market politics on one side and pro-environment on the other.

The rise of this new electoral voting block is partly due to the fall of the Australian Democrats. The Greens have garnered not only the remaining younger female vote who traditionally voted Democrat, as well as those whose social politics is left wing and whose economic politics is right wing.

Black goes on to say that if this trend continues in 2010, it could give the Greens enough primary votes to come ahead of the Liberals at the next election in some seats and could cost Rudd Finance Minister Lindsay Tanner (Melbourne), Housing Minister Tanya Plibersek (Sydney), Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese (Grayndler) and Resources Minister Martin Ferguson (Batman) their seats.

“These seats look safe on the pendulum but 6 per cent swings to the Greens from Labor wipes out some of Rudd’s top ministers,” Black says.

This is good and possibly confusing news for the Greens. No one could accuse them of being free market advocates. While it’s early days, this bodes well for the Greens winning a Victorian Senate seat (Fielding’s) in 2010.

It’s also a warning sign for the government that the electorate is not heterogeneous and in the inner urban areas, childless women who are sick of the baby bonus rhetoric will vote for themselves.