Diverting the Brahmaputra - start of the Water Wars?

Sacrilege

The site is the Great Bend of the Yalung Tsangpo where it flows around Mount Namcha Barwa on its final run south into India. One of the last pristine regions of the world, it is the world’s most spectacular, and deepest canyon. The Great Bend, known also as Pemakö, is home of the Goddess Dorjee Pagmo, the Protecting Deity of Tibet and revered by all Tibetans. During filling and then commissioning the wild river will be no more.

Promises of electricity

China has promised electricity to its neighbours from this project, but a review of the project suggests serious limits. Pumped storage hydros consume off peak power to pump water back to the storage dam for reuse. The water return pumps, primary transfer pumps and the transfer network pump stations will consume considerable electricity. Within Tibet, proposed electrification of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway and its extensions, large-scale urbanisation, mining, industry and military facilities will create another major demand.

Downstream effects and water management problems

Filling this dam alone will take a decade, seriously reducing downstream flow. This massive dam requires a strict management regime to maintain critical water levels to meet the electricity demand. There is also the problem of conflicting agriculture water demand in India, Bangladesh and dependent areas in China. Emergency discharge would be disastrous if coinciding with the June to September monsoon season in India.

Environmental and humanitarian concerns

Tibet in general, is an arid area with little rainfall where glacial melt is the primary water source.

China's 33 per cent diversion uses 1990s glacial melt estimates before the serious effects of global warming became an issue. Recent studies by the China Academy of Sciences confirmed glacial regression in Tibet has exceeded their worst-case scenarios and at current rates, much of Tibet's glacial and surface waters will be lost in just a few decades.

China's 1990s calculations of China's annual demand of 200B m3 equated to 33 per cent of the flow at that time. Some forecasts warned global warming would trigger initial flow surges followed by drought, but failed to factor in a reduction in glacial recharge that will in fact reduce source flow reserves.

Extrapolating this data and using revised river flow, the projected 200B m3 will now be well in excess of the original 33 per cent portion of current flow. Based on Three Gorges, construction and reservoir charging will consume two of those decades, and at a time when glacial regression will be accelerating.

What happens downstream for the millions who are dependent on the mineral and silt rich waters of the Brahmaputra to revitalise their fields and ensure survival? This monster has a huge thirst just to meet China's water needs and that will sap energy from the Brahmaputra, especially on its final journey into the delta. As the energy dissipates, the current tidal surge will be enhanced, penetrating further and further upstream, with salt water destroying precious Bangladeshi farmland, inundating low-lying land, villages, and townships.

Beijing's denials

Despite denials from Beijing, State media continually refers to surveys and activity with oblique references to the Tsangpo Project.

Increasing reports to the contrary are coming out of China and Tibet. Scrutiny of the 100B Yuan capital works project for Tibet in the 11th 5-Year Plan exposes gaping holes. The 750M Yuan allocation for construction of the Medog highway suggests credence to the initiation of the Tsangpo Project.

State media has made numerous recent references to the 141km Bomi-Medog highway linking the lower Brahmaputra Valley with Tibet's main east-west highway 318. This is unusual expenditure considering Medog's population is less than 10,000 and mostly consists of Tibetans. Medog is 30km north of the disputed border with India and has a heavy, and reportedly increasing, military presence.

Access to this road has always been difficult. It is an unclassified road in "poor condition and a continual danger from landslide", but is in regular use by the military operating a wide range of vehicles.