The Mandarin candidate diplomacy

There remained a lot of anti-Australian sentiment in Indonesia at elite level, but President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono - “probably the most pro-Australian Indonesian leader we have ever had” - is taking the Realpolitik view over East Timor “you broke it, it’s yours”.

While the US had to be considered a loser overall following the decision to withdraw from Iraq and Rudd’s pre-election statement of a more distinctive foreign policy voice, Dobell said the Australian Government has been solicitous about reassuring the Americans on its support of the approach to Afghanistan. “Probably one result of that - and it is a Rudd position going well back - is the locking of this country into a considerable engagement in Afghanistan for a long time and at considerable risk.”

He believes the US’s losing position will only be in the short term - possibly until a new Administration takes its place in Washington - and Iraq involvement would have been a dead duck even if the Coalition had been re-elected. “Both sides of politics now agree it is time to cut and run. There was probably going to be a lot more emphasis on a continued training commitment if the Coalition had won, but there would have been a god-awful fight if Howard had tried to keep the battle group there beyond June.”

Events of the past few days since Dobell’s address are a demonstration of how quickly things can change on the international scene. Rudd will now visit a China that is under severe international censure for its crackdown on Tibet and amid mounting calls for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics later this year. As the first Western leader to visit Beijing since the onset of the crisis he can hardly avoid raising the issue - a significant test of diplomatic skills for the Mandarin Candidate.