Kyoto, Australia and honesty

At this time we should bring some perspective to China's energy growth that has been failing to play catch-up with demand. For 12 months 2005-2006, the rate of energy growth was well in excess of economic growth at just over 20 per cent and in 2007 there is still a serious energy shortfall.

So we can conclude that:

• China has an excessive and increasing energy demand;
• demand is outpacing capacity; and
• wasteful energy use and pricing policies are undermining gains.

If Mr Rudd can convince Hu Jintao to cut back just on emissions alone, he will achieve a monumental economic miracle. It will be a good opportunity for Mr Rudd to vigorously debate the issue in Putonghua to ensure his points are not at risk of distortion in translation.

From political speak, the most likely translation of events in China will be on the "success" of the talks resulting in the "… ongoing joint intent and genuine co-operation by Australia in which Australia, US, India, Japan, South Korea, and China agreed to collaborate on strategies to cut greenhouse gas emissions in half by the end of the 21st century within the agreed framework." A major political coup for Mr Rudd?

Australia in perspective

To put Australia in perspective, we must be honest with ourselves. If we are to make a change then Australia must be able to bargain from a position of strength.

Do we have that strength? If so! Where is the stick and where is the carrot?

It is China's insatiable appetite for raw materials and exports of cheap consumer goods that is driving Australia's economy, not vice versa. Do we impose environmental taxes or penalties on our uranium and iron ore? Possibly impose tariffs on imports?

China is not relying on Australia in the medium to long term. It has substantial mineral reserves that include uranium and is negotiating for investors and partners for exploitation. Look closely at China's rapidly expanding rail network and discussions with India, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Russia on iron ore, coal, uranium, gas and oil. The Tibet railway and extensions now under construction will transport Tibet's vast mineral reserves to the processing centres in China. Of course China, India and other countries are interested in Australia's uranium. The reserves are high grade and easily mined as well as being the cheapest and most stable source of supply available.

2030 is the key to global survival and is common to all climate change strategies and with good reason. 2030 also plays a key role in China's planning and the real impact of on our future.

This is not a question of China bashing, Australia bashing or pro nuclear. It is a matter of simple awareness and being informed and being able to gauge the relevance and credibility of our politician's statements and policies, as well as being able to gauge the same in deliverances from the many self interest groups, well meaning and otherwise.

China's growing impact

We ignore the real impact of China on global warming at our peril. Without China any global commitment is meaningless.