Jewish West Bank settlements a bad mistake

Demographic: The annexation of the West Bank including the settlements would mean Jews becoming a minority in their own country. This would leave Israel with two equally bad choices: either a Greater Israel which is likely to become a pariah state due to denying national and civil rights to the Palestinians despite their demographic majority, or one unified or bi-national state which would inevitably become a Greater Palestine due to the higher Palestinian birthrate.

The demographic threat is recognised by the current Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert who argued in a November 2007 interview with Haaretz that Israel was “finished” if it forced the Palestinians into a South African-style struggle for democracy and equal voting rights.

Military: The settlements are arguably a military burden rather than an asset. Huge numbers of troops have to be deployed to defend residents. The Israeli political scientist Menachem Klein has estimated that Israel employs 100,000 armed personnel to defend the 100,000 women and children in the settlements.

Public relations: The continued existence of the settlements is a public relations disaster for Israel. Numerous anti-Zionist propagandists point to the settlements as evidence of Israel's alleged quest for territorial expansion and ethnic domination, rather than its stated preference for territorial compromise and a negotiated peace. The settlements also provide a convenient excuse for the rationalisation of Palestinian violence and extremism.

Today's reality: is it reversible?

The number of West Bank settlers has steadily grown since the mid 1970s - from 3,000 in 1976, to 48,000 in 1984, to 108,000 in 1992, to 218,000 by 2002.

This included massive growth following the signing of the Oslo Peace Accord in September 1993, despite the widespread expectation that Israel would evacuate many, if not most, of the settlements. This expansion seems to have occurred in part because the Peace Accord contained no specific clause freezing the construction of new settlements.

Today, the Peace Now Settlement Watch Report refers to 121 Israeli settlements and 260,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank (not counting East Jerusalem) including large cities such as Ariel and Ma'ale Adunim, which have populations of more than 15,000 people.

In addition, there are 105 illegal outposts populated by 3,000 settlers. Eighty per cent of the settlements and outposts sit (fully or partially) on private Palestinian-owned land.

Anti-Zionist authors such as Virginia Tilley and Ali Abunimah claim that the settlements are irreversible. For example, Tilley claims that it is inconceivable that any Israeli government would have the political will to dismantle the settlements.

She argues that the settlements have prospered because they have enjoyed the ongoing patronage of Jewish national institutions such as the Jewish National Fund and all Israeli governments, whatever their political persuasion.

This support also reflects the dependence of Israel on the key water aquifers in the West Bank, and the power of the settler movement, which threatens to respond to any pullback by shattering the unity of Jews both inside and outside Israel. Others note that any threat of forced evacuation may provoke an armed uprising from militant settlers leading potentially to a civil war.

However, the withdrawal of 8,000 settlers from Gaza in 2005 suggests that significant evacuation is possible, and that the settlement process can be reversed. The Gaza withdrawal also demonstrated that a strong Israeli government can overcome resistance from hardline settlers.