Planning for peak oil - what it will mean

Alternatives to fossil fuels must be investigated and advanced. There is a federal rebate to convert cars to LPG. Biofuels are touted as an alternative, but they can also result in food price increases when land that was producing food for human consumption is turned over to crops to create transport fuels. Although ethanol is a possibility, overall it is a net energy loser, i.e. more energy is used in the cropping and production than is produced.

Some in Australia see the abundance of coal as a potential saviour, but using coal produces huge amounts of greenhouse gases.

Forgetting all the other arguments I have against nuclear energy, it is not a solution as an alternative to oil either.

I do recall that as long ago as 1986 Professor Martin Green saying, with solar technology, we could turn roofs of carports into solar energy collectors for electric cars, giving us enough charge in our batteries to travel 80km - enough for most people to get to and from work. With the squeeze on resources, because of climate change and related water scarcity, combined with peak oil, we must question those who argue for increased population.

The “green revolution”, caused by the use of fertilisers and pesticides, allowed the growth of populations worldwide but as the price of these increases in response to peak oil, will that revolution grind to a halt?

Can the existing population be sustained at the current levels of affluence? I contend that if we are to increase the population in Australia we will have to accept a lower standard of living.

Plastics produced from oil have become a mainstay of the developed world; think of bottled water, plastic in our computers. Some clothing fabrics are made from petrochemicals, as are our phones, paints, garden hoses, radios and TVs.

What are the alternatives to plastics? What will be the impact on essential services? What about health? The pharmaceutical industry is highly dependent on the petrochemical industry. What sort of industries will we be able to sustain and where will they be located?

Internationally, Sweden aims to be nearly oil free by 2020 by replacing all fossil fuels with renewables.

A series of self-designated “peak oil transition towns” have been set up in the UK, including Totnes which has developed an Energy Descent Action Plan.

In the US cities in Oregon, Texas, California, and Washington, have recognised the looming problem. When you look at the public transport systems in those cities it is clear that they have a head start on us.

Other cities, such as Portland in Oregon and Bloomington in Indiana, have gone beyond that and have action plans. Portland has established a Peak Oil Task Force that produced a report with a principal recommendation of “act big, act now”, and I cannot think of a much better recommendation. The US House of Representatives has a bipartisan peak oil caucus, and has recommended that the US, in concert with its allies, should establish an energy project along the lines of the “Man on the Moon” project set up in the late 50s and early 60s. This should be done with the same urgency and creativity with which that project was tackled. Eight months ago, the British parliament formed its All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas.