Ripe for a revolution

Unemployment is officially low - a little over 4 per cent. However, because unemployed state enterprise workers are excluded from the figures, others put it at up to 10 per cent in the cities and higher in the countryside. Others go even further saying the number of unemployed is about 170 million in the cities alone.

With millions unemployed in the cities, with corruption endemic, with political repression and with the Chinese working class the mainspring of China's growth, the situation is more favourable objectively for the democracy movement now than in it was in 1989.

As the deposed Zhao Ziyang wrote ten years ago "The trend of democracy cannot be blocked".

Han Dongfang of the China Labour Bulletin argues that the most important component in the move towards democracy is the fight for the establishment of free trade unions.

Han says, "Independent trade unions are an indispensable part of this impetus to a new society as well as a strong and democratic mechanism for civil society. We might even say that independent trade unions are the key to building a democratic China."

Tiananmen Square in 1989 was a workers' movement as a well as a student movement. Workers were instrumental in holding up the Army’s first attempt to suppress the students. Their representatives involved themselves in debates with students. Some soldiers joined the rebels as a result of urging from bystanders. Five million people at one stage ran Beijing for two days. Everywhere people sang the Internationale, to highlight their commitment to a democratic and socialist future and to expose the fake socialism of the ruling elite.

While repression smashed the nascent uprising, it is clear it was a dress rehearsal for the future. The Chinese working class has a material interest in democracy. It has the industrial strength to overthrow the corrupt and bankrupt butchers in Beijing. Whether it has the political ability and leadership to ensure a successful revolution is the real question.

Certainly unrest is rife. Offical labour dispute figures have grown by around 20 per cent over the course of this century. The real number of strikes and demonstrations is difficult to know but most commentators see a further increase in social tension as the rich get richer.

One thing is certain. The (underground) leadership of the Chinese working class that currently exits and will evolve over time has no illusions about the Chinese Communist party. Nor do most workers. Only revolution can remove the present ruling class and usher in democracy.

Any Communist Party initiated democratic reforms will open the floodgates to revolution from below, in much the same way as Perestroika heralded the defeat of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union.

Revolution in China may not happen tomorrow, but it will happen. And it will not be and cannot just be a demand for political freedom - that demand will slide into calls for economic freedom. Socialism - the working class democratically running society - will be on the agenda. Then all the world will change.