The American Primaries: the US Presidential race so far

Former Arkansas governor Huckabee, despite his loss in New Hampshire, remains the most intriguing candidate. He disagrees with the old maxim that war is the last thing that should be left to generals. Teetering on the edge of a very old strain of Republican isolationism, he prefers military action only when the outcome is certain. Only those with bloodied boots could lead soldiers into battle competently. He is not averse to capital spending. He has shown compassion in capital punishment and even to immigrants. He states without equivocation that Bush’s foreign policy has been an unmitigated disaster and is conciliatory to foreign powers. His success can hardly be explained merely by social conservatism.

The Democratic race has already been thinned out. Bill Richardson, the only candidate with true Hispanic credentials, has dropped out. Dennis Kucinich, one of the ablest, was muzzled prior to the Iowa caucus. Senator John Edwards, the only candidate to genuinely see and talk about poverty in America, is doomed to languish in third spot.

Obama’s enemies will come from within the Democratic Party. The Clinton machine, alarmed by his progress, target his voting record on Iraq, previous drug use, and his approach to health care. There is even a hint that race is important: Are you really African American, Obama? Or perhaps “bi-racial”? Such things matter in the lunatic asylum of race relations.

Undeterred, Obama’s New Hampshire speech did not sound like one made in defeat. He sees himself as heading the phalanx of a “new majority”. His message: we can all heal the wounds of America, improve health, end tax breaks for corporations, and ameliorate the education system. He will end the war in Iraq and bring the soldiers home. He will “end the tyranny of oil” through technology. Nonetheless, the product has yet to manifest itself from the dazzle.

Caucuses were then held in Nevada (January 19), some in the casinos of Las Vegas, where Clinton repeated the success of New Hampshire. Obama continued to snap at her heels. The odd thing with that result is that Hillary’s victory on paper may not have translated into a victory for the national convention - a result of “weighted” votes. We shall know by April 19 whether Obama has gotten one more Nevada delegate. The Democrats now move on to South Carolina.

Romney made it two in a row, being the only Republican to shine in that gamble-mad state. But McCain made it where it counted: winning South Carolina that same day, a state that derailed his chances in 2000. Huckabee was pitted to the post, unable to capitalise on the evangelical vote, while a third-placed finish for Thompson may put pay to his chances. The Republicans now do battle in Florida, where Giuliani may finally pull his weight.

Hopefuls from both sides will then move on to the circus on 5 February, dubbed “Super Tuesday”. Twenty-two states will feature in an orgy of campaigning and balloting. “We don’t know what’s coming”, says a commentator on America’s National Public Radio. Virtually no one does, but we can be sure about one thing: all candidates will continue tooting the message of change.