Competing interests - food or fuel?

Climate change

Climate change carries adverse consequences for global food production, rendering it even more difficult to meet global food demand. As temperatures rise, so too will the risk of droughts, floods, and crop loss. According to some projections, global warming will reduce the world's agricultural gross domestic product by 16 per cent by 2020, disproportionately affecting developing countries. Production will fall by 20 per cent in those countries, compared to 6 per cent in industrialised nations. (Cline, 2007)

The effects of climate change will also vary by region, depending on the crop, location, and severity. South Asia is expected to witness dramatic cereal production declines of up to 22 per cent, while developed countries and Latin America are likely to see production gains. (Tubiello and Fischer, 2007)

Compared with Asia or Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its high proportion of low-input, rain-fed agriculture, as well as its reliance on range and grasslands for grazing livestock.

Climate change will also render more people food insecure, particularly in low-income countries. Once again, Sub-Saharan Africa will be one of the hardest hit: according to one estimate, the number of undernourished people in the region may triple between 1990 and 2080, due in part to the indirect effects of climate change. (Tubiello and Fischer, 2007)

Decades ago, agricultural crises could be addressed through technology. The Green Revolution of the 1960s introduced high-yielding wheat and rice seeds, preventing widespread famine. Unfortunately, technological solutions alone will not be adequate to address the production losses caused by climate change. What can make a significant difference, however, are policies and investments that improve agricultural productivity, increase the adaptability of rural areas to climate change, and compensate rural communities and smallholder farmers when crops fail.