Let's be fair about climate targets

A gradual transition to such a regime of per capita emissions entitlements would enable developing countries to continue expanding their emissions for some time as they must to continue developing their economies. So we’d have to be prepared to reduce developing countries’ and our own entitlements accordingly.

That’s how the developed countries got engagement from Russia back in Kyoto. Russia was given more emissions entitlements than it needed as a bribe. But rather than the kind of “fairness” we’re dishing out to the developing countries now, entitling them to delay real action it was the right kind of bribe. Russia had the same stake in immediately abating carbon as the countries facing tougher targets - because it could sell its permits to them!

So as we navigate the new “road map” that was agreed at Bali we should be both warm hearted and cool headed. We can do so by valuing fairness to both developed and developing countries.

We should be unapologetic about continuing our own relatively token actions unless and until all major emitters - including as a minimum the US and China - are fully engaged.

And we should focus on the goal and the benefits of carbon abatement, not just its costs. As with tariff cuts there’ll be big winners as well as losers. And some will surprise us. Providing the US and developing countries are engaged, carbon emitters like gas production and even aluminium will be winners wherever their consumption reduces emissions by more than the emissions used in their production.

Given a tolerably “level playing field” in our region, the pain of quite deep cuts will be dwarfed by the usual process of economic growth. Indeed adjustment to deep cuts over the next 12 years would be slower than the adjustment we’ve just been through since petrol prices shot up - and that didn’t slow us down much.

And the overriding point of what pain we do experience is to achieve a greater benefit - in this case to reduce the risk of much higher costs from climate change (including the slim but real chance of really catastrophic warming).

If we can focus on securing the basic fairness that is the precondition for political sustainability, we should be unafraid to sign up to the kinds of aggressive carbon reduction target the UN has spruiked.

If we can’t, perhaps we should stock up on sunscreen for our kids and grandkids.

Things will probably hot up.