Team Bush intends to 'transform the Middle East'

What is particularly noteworthy in relation to Syria is how certain, highly dubious, intelligence reports have tried to link Damascus with the broader Iranian nuclear crisis. These reports, whose origins are Israeli, suggest that Syria and North Korea are engaging in joint activity to construct a "nuclear installation" to produce "fissile material" for a nuclear weapon. These reports do not focus on plutonium for if they did so they would lack all credibility. Rather it is stated that North Korea is helping Syria to build a uranium enrichment plant. This story relies heavily on allegations about North Korea's own enrichment program however these allegations, though often repeated, are false. The allegations on North Korea are based on questionable extrapolations of aluminum tube orders, as with Iraq.

The real significance of this story is not the content but the clear attempt to link Syria with the regional nuclear crisis.

Last week it was revealed that the Israeli air force dropped munitions over Syrian territory during an incursion, most likely to manoeuvre in the face of Syrian counter measures. The flight path of the aircraft was such that it would have flown to the closest point between Syria and Iran. Speculation was rife with the Israeli press reporting that the aircraft may have been testing Syrian air defences or scouting ballistic missile launch sites.. More details have emerged however. It appears that it was an actual airstrike with speculation now focusing on the likely targets including a joint Syrian-Iranian missile installation, according to Arab reports. All this is consistent with planning for an air campaign.

There has also been interesting developments on the ballistic missile front. Israel has been working on its own Arrow high altitude area defence system that is designed to intercept Iranian medium range missiles. But in recent times Israel has sought PAC-3 interceptors from the United States precisely for Syrian contingencies. Syria’s missiles represent the main deterrent that Damascus has against Israel.

PAC-3 and Arrow BMD systems would match a two-front contingency involving both Syria and Iran. Following the latest Israeli invasion of Lebanon, when Israel failed to secure the region of Lebanon south of the Litani River, the Israeli press reports that Tel Aviv has embarked on a major military upgrade program with Syria very much in mind. There have appeared repeated statements about the possibility of war with Syria although there has been a recent drawback of military exercises on the Golan Heights, the likely front in any land war.

When Bashar Assad succeeded his father there was much talk about liberal reforms but external pressure has seen Assad get a bad case of cold feet. The same dynamic has been observed in Iran, as noted.

Team Bush has repeatedly spoken of transforming the Middle East. The above actions are all consistent with planning centered upon a two-front war against Iran and Syria. That does not mean that such will be the case, or that it will be simultaneous, but it should be readily apparent that we could be sliding into just such an outcome.

Being alive to the possibility would help to prevent us from getting into such a conflict, the likely consequences of which would not be pretty, to say the least.