Our finite planet: planning for a decline in our oil bounty

Recently, the International Energy Agency abandoned its no-problem mantra on oil supplies. In an astonishing about-face, it is now warning of insufficient oil production within five years due to rapidly increasing demand in China and India and the declining spare production capacity from OPEC. (See my article in On Line Opinion.)

The report does not declare us to be at the peak of oil production but speaks strongly about peak oil issues such as dwindling oil output from old fields, an insufficient supply of new oil production projects, the escalating costs of oilfield and refinery development, “slippage” (delays) in such projects, the failure of biofuels to make a big dent in mitigating oil depletion and the conflict of biofuels with food supply, (demonstrations in Mexico over high corn prices as corn is diverted to ethanol production) and so on.

The role of the IEA is to inform OECD governments about energy. Did Rann hear its message? Does he understand what will happen to Adelaide, especially outer Adelaide, if the price of petrol doubles or more?

A person with scientific training like Minister Jane Lomax-Smith will tell you that “energy” means “the capacity to do work”. Oil is our most important source of energy and if we wait until the price of oil doubles before we do anything then, whatever the work required to cope, we will be able to afford less of it.