Fun in the sun: a summer election for Costello PM?

The political dynamics would be instantly transformed. The “it’s time” sentiment that currently seems unstoppable would fade quickly, as the attention of the media and swinging voters switched from Kevin Rudd to Costello PM. Costello would set the agenda. He would be much better placed than Howard to re-make the Government’s image on issues such as climate change. The APEC meeting in Sydney in September would put him on the international stage.

Of course, a leadership change would carry risks. While a solid majority of Australians approve of Costello’s performance as Treasurer, his poll ratings as alternative PM are well below both Rudd’s and Howard’s.

But those figures are much less relevant than the current two-party preferred numbers. Labor’s lead, rock-solid for months, is unprecedented in size. Howard is struggling in Bennelong. And in the short-term the polls may get worse rather than better, given the Haneef debacle and the likelihood of another interest rate rise.

The “hardheads” in the media are talking up the Government’s prospects because they want a real horse-race. Some have been scarred by over-confident predictions in the totally different circumstances of 2004. But Kevin Rudd is not Mark Latham.

Australia’s political situation is akin to that in Britain in the lead-up to the May 1997 election. A tired and scandal-ridden Conservative administration was way past its use-by date. The electorate was not so much angry as contemptuous and bored. Apolitical voters retained some residual respect for the PM, John Major, a dour scrapper like Howard. But New Labour’s intelligent and presentable young leader (Tony Blair) gave waverers all the reassurance they needed, just as Rudd seems to have done here. For months the polls showed a Blair landslide in the offing, and it duly occurred. His huge parliamentary majority held up at two subsequent elections.

The really tough Liberal Party operators must know that if Howard stays as PM, the Coalition is doomed. Not just at this election, but most likely at the next one as well. Howard may not be the whole problem, but he certainly isn’t the answer.

Costello may not be either, but he’s their best hope of a respectable result. If the Liberal Party bites the bullet soon and installs him as PM, it could make for a strange sort of summer.