Spotlight on Bolivia

But even though Evo Morales is the current darling of the anti-American populist left in South America, it may be, from the perspective of those who fear a sharp turn to the left in Bolivia, that his bark is worse than his bite. Morales may turn out to be more like Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, than Venezuela’s Chavez.

Morales is currently polling over 30 per cent of the vote. Behind Morales in the polls are the US-educated former president Jorge ‘Tutu’ Quiroga and Samuel Doria Medina with 28 per cent and 16 per cent support, respectively. Quiroga and Doria are anti-Morales candidates, both favour some form of neo-liberal economic model for Bolivia.

In other words, Evo Morales might need to adjust his sails if he is to garner sufficient votes to win the election and then work with Congress. This is despite his September 27 pledge that, "It is not our intention to enter any type of alliance with neo-liberal parties".

Lula, who campaigned for the Brazilian presidency in 2002 on a radical platform, but who has in office pursued relatively orthodox economic strategies combined with wealth redistribution polices, provides such a model for Morales. And given Bolivia’s heavy reliance on support from the IMF and the World Bank for debt relief and economic assistance - it is one of the world’s 16 most heavily indebted countries - Morales is not in as strong a position as his neighbour, Argentina’s President Nestor Kirchner who has played hardball with the IMF since he was elected in 2003.

Wandering around La Paz and talking to the locals gives one a sense that this election is somehow very different to the others in this country. “In the past the result was known in advance, but this time no one knows what is going to happen”, says Claudia, a 40-year-old La Paz businesswoman, reflecting a common view in Bolivia.

Bolivia is in the spotlight for the moment. But like most things in this landlocked and physically stunning country, the reality on the ground is more complex than it seems in Washington, Havana or Caracas.