The extinction of petroleum man

Russia, quite unexpectedly, turns out to have won the Cold War. It may have been forced to ditch its Soviet ideology, but of the three blocs, Russia alone has both the nuclear weapons and the oil and gas. China and the West, by contrast, are now competing supplicants for Russian resources, giving enormous power to Moscow.

Despite the overwhelming evidence that Strahan is able to marshal to support his case, the officials in Whitehall and Washington are keeping the truth from the public at large who still seem all-too-easily lulled into the complacency of the “official” version of events, that oil may not peak until 2037 or later, and that renewables and alternatives are being developed that will save the economy

What is to be done?

The last two chapters outline quite clear recommendations both for policy makers and individuals to reduce fossil dependency and prepare for energy shortages. These include the radical suggestion that governments should “scrap all airport and road network expansion forthwith; there will be plenty of spare capacity soon enough”.

He also calls for, in the UK, the formation of a new “Department for Energy and Climate change” with a cabinet-ranking Energy Secretary, with the remit to achieve “complete independence from hydrocarbons by 2030, by expanding renewable supply where environmentally acceptable and managing demand as necessary”.

This is an ambitious goal, but Strahan does not go into as much detail as, for example, George Monbiot does in Heat to explain exactly how this can be achieved. Part of his mix includes a commitment to “one more generation of nuclear”, as he finds the anti-nuclear lobby to take “a curious position, which acknowledges that we face a huge energy deficit, but proposes to make it bigger anyway”.

In this, I find Strahan ultimately fails to address the deeper implications of global energy peak, and the reality that we have to dramatically change lifestyles and the whole ethic of our culture if we are to move into a more sustainable future.

For me, the nuclear option is really just grasping at straws in a vain attempt to try to keep an unsustainable culture going for a little bit longer. I don't feel that the Powerdown Alternative - not just “consume less” but the strategic re-positioning of society to prepare for energy descent - has been thoroughly examined. Imagine what could be achieved if the resources being ear-marked for a new generation of nuclear were to go into localisation programs, education, re-skilling for a low-energy world, and so on.

Nuclear power will of necessity depend on centralised systems of a massive scale which will be increasingly inappropriate for the future after peak, requiring lengthy lead-in times and a willingness to leave clearing up the waste to future generations who may have other issues to deal with by then.

Strahan accepts that the three-pronged supply-side policy of nuclear, renewables and efficiency will not be sufficient, and does explore Tradeable Energy Quotas and other schemes designed to lead to cut backs in consumption while at the same time helping to redistribute wealth.

The Last Oil Shock is another powerful voice in the peak oil debate and sets a new standard in investigative journalism for the issue. Perhaps Strahan’s comments on the radio recently, concerning Transition Towns powering down, suggests that he to is coming round to the idea that communities will have to learn themselves to adapt to the extinction of Petroleum Man.